ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
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- centuryv58
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??
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- centuryv58
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
centuryv58 wrote:N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??
Yes it is!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
What an interesting run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
centuryv58 wrote:N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??
It's trying! LOL
+210hr

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- centuryv58
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
centuryv58 wrote:centuryv58 wrote:N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??
Yes it is!
Crosses back east at Tampa and heads to the ATL. What a performer this storm is!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Alyono wrote:floridasun78 wrote:were link to ukmet because i see that tropicaltidbits dont have it or go other nameSouth Texas Storms wrote:
Thanks for posting this. So far, all 0z models are stronger with this system.
I get the info in my e-mail
There also available to the public here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... e/warnings Atlantic and north-east Pacific (east of 180°)
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
centuryv58 wrote:N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??
Yes, the GFS track wise is kind of reminding me somewhat of Elena in 1985 without the west bend, which mean it wouldn't be without precedent as its happened before
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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- deltadog03
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GFS and the CMC really have some better environments over the GOM as they both develop this, CMC being the stronger of the 2. The EURO will be interesting tonight.
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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
deltadog03 wrote:GFS and the CMC really have some better environments over the GOM as they both develop this, CMC being the stronger of the 2. The EURO will be interesting tonight.
Even the conditions in the Bahamas are better according to the 0Z models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
CMC intensifies it and has a huge shift east, from Texas to about Destin:
+120hr

+120hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
WTNT82 EGRR 260418
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016
<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>
Code: Select all
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62
Last edited by supercane on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GFS says that 99L/Hermine hits MS/LA first, then Tampa, and then South Carolina all in one run. However, it's the strongest when it hits Tampa from the northwest, not when it sits over the Gulf for 3 days with favorable upper level winds. Lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Is all the information from the recon and dropsondes in these models or just some of them?
Also can it going in between Cuba and Florida cause the system to consolidate and actually get its act together and once getting into the GoM actually blow up into a monster?
Also can it going in between Cuba and Florida cause the system to consolidate and actually get its act together and once getting into the GoM actually blow up into a monster?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
A trough like that in that position on the GFS would cause an ESE recurve to Florida from the northern gulf so this solution cant be ignored especially if other models start showing it but as of right now no other model shows this solution
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
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- TheProfessor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The 4th Landfall on the GFS
picture uploading
What's the most amount of landfalls a storm in the U.S has had?

What's the most amount of landfalls a storm in the U.S has had?
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
supercane wrote:Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
WTNT82 EGRR 260418
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016
<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62
Wouldn't normally a storm with a pressure of 975 be a little bit stronger than 62 Kts?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I don't want to imagine 99L still being in the Gulf by NEXT Sunday lol. Probably won't see that next run but the increase in vorticity is notable. Very interested to see the 00z Euro...I assume it received data from the dropsondes as well?
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Blinhart wrote:supercane wrote:Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
WTNT82 EGRR 260418
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016
<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62
Wouldn't normally a storm with a pressure of 975 be a little bit stronger than 62 Kts?
Not all the time. Isaac was 965mb with only 80mph sustained winds because of it's large size.
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