ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2601 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:49 am

the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down :(
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2602 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:52 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:850mb, 700mb and 500mb vorticity are nearly stacked but the 200mb vorticity is a little north as of 0700 central time.


The 200mb vort is harmful. It needs to distance itself from upper level cyclonic flow. It kills convection and causes shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2603 Postby JaxGator » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down :(


There is radar at Gitmo but it doesn't go out that far out. However, it is showing some of the convection that's firing near the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2604 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:53 am

recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2605 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:54 am

Looking like it's on the comeback trail - it also has slowed down considerably. I think it barely moved overnight, allowing it to stack. Continues to bear watching.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2606 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:54 am

What is helping aid the convection?

Well the upper high sheering apart 99L to the south yesterday is breaking away from the wave axis finally. Still at a very slow pace.

More importantly, the other upper high to the northeast of axis is in a nice position providing great inflow.

The models might be underestimating the one to the Northeast as it is getting pinched by the massive ridge to the north and ULL to the east making it more elongated southwest to northeast.
Last edited by HurriGuy on Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2607 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:55 am

JaxGator wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down :(


There is radar at Gitmo but it doesn't go out that far out. However, it is showing some of the convection that's firing near the center.

link. I have not used that in awhile
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2608 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..


The mission was un-cancelled?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2609 Postby JaxGator » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:57 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down :(


There is radar at Gitmo but it doesn't go out that far out. However, it is showing some of the convection that's firing near the center.

link. I have not used that in awhile


http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/GMO_loop.gif FAA ARSR4 Radar From Guantanamo Bay Cuba.
Last edited by JaxGator on Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2610 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:57 am

REcon thread says they cancelled recon today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2611 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:57 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..


The mission was un-cancelled?


looking into it.. I guess it took off then turned around ? I dont know.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2612 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:58 am

HurriGuy wrote:
The models might be underestimating the one to the Northeast as it is getting pinched by the massive ridge to the north and ULL to the east making it more elongated southwest to northeast.


What would that mean if the models are underestimating the one to the Northeast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2613 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:59 am

this site will come in handy later today and tomorrow as it gets closer.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: changed to link
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2614 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:01 am

Aric Dunn wrote:this site will come in handy later today and tomorrow as it gets closer.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif


Careful embedding images from non image sites, that puts a huge load on their servers from anyone who even looks at that post. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2615 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:01 am

BigB0882 wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:
The models might be underestimating the one to the Northeast as it is getting pinched by the massive ridge to the north and ULL to the east making it more elongated southwest to northeast.


What would that mean if the models are underestimating the one to the Northeast?


Well this is the upper high feature that is supposed to evolve/transition into the Gulf. This is what the HWRF depicts and if it is already making its way into a favorable position, it could strengthen quicker.

Not saying this is a sure thing, but this is what I depict from water vapor loop
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2616 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:01 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2617 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:02 am

tolakram wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:this site will come in handy later today and tomorrow as it gets closer.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif


Careful embedding images from non image sites, that puts a huge load on their servers from anyone who even looks at that post. :)


forgot that site auto generates new GIFs :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2618 Postby Michele B » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:06 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.


Maybe THAT's why she's been unwilling to "come out to play."

We've been calling her by the wrong name!

:ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2619 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:07 am

It looks way better right now than it did at any time yesterday. Wind shear is still strong, but the low level vorticity max appears healthy. As long as convection can continue to fire, there remains a legitimate chance of tropical cyclogenesis if the shear lessens.

Image
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2620 Postby TropicalSailor » Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:08 am

Aric Dunn wrote:recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..
'

Where did you see this? Just curious.

(EDIT: I see them now leaving Tampa)
Last edited by TropicalSailor on Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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