ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down

[MississippiWx]

850mb, 700mb and 500mb vorticity are nearly stacked but the 200mb vorticity is a little north as of 0700 central time.

The 200mb vort is harmful. It needs to distance itself from upper level cyclonic flow. It kills convection and causes shear.

[JaxGator]

the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down

There is radar at Gitmo but it doesn't go out that far out. However, it is showing some of the convection that's firing near the center.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..

[AdamFirst]

Looking like it's on the comeback trail - it also has slowed down considerably. I think it barely moved overnight, allowing it to stack. Continues to bear watching.

[HurriGuy]

What is helping aid the convection?

Well the upper high sheering apart 99L to the south yesterday is breaking away from the wave axis finally. Still at a very slow pace.

More importantly, the other upper high to the northeast of axis is in a nice position providing great inflow.

The models might be underestimating the one to the Northeast as it is getting pinched by the massive ridge to the north and ULL to the east making it more elongated southwest to northeast.

[Aric Dunn]

the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down

There is radar at Gitmo but it doesn't go out that far out. However, it is showing some of the convection that's firing near the center.

link. I have not used that in awhile

[Evil Jeremy]

recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..

The mission was un-cancelled?

[JaxGator]

the one darn cuban radar site that we need is down

There is radar at Gitmo but it doesn't go out that far out. However, it is showing some of the convection that's firing near the center.

link. I have not used that in awhile

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/GMO_loop.gif FAA ARSR4 Radar From Guantanamo Bay Cuba.

[SunnyThoughts]

REcon thread says they cancelled recon today.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..

The mission was un-cancelled?

looking into it.. I guess it took off then turned around ? I dont know.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ ?

[BigB0882]

The models might be underestimating the one to the Northeast as it is getting pinched by the massive ridge to the north and ULL to the east making it more elongated southwest to northeast.

What would that mean if the models are underestimating the one to the Northeast?

[Aric Dunn]

this site will come in handy later today and tomorrow as it gets closer.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

[tolakram]

this site will come in handy later today and tomorrow as it gets closer.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

Careful embedding images from non image sites, that puts a huge load on their servers from anyone who even looks at that post.

[HurriGuy]

The models might be underestimating the one to the Northeast as it is getting pinched by the massive ridge to the north and ULL to the east making it more elongated southwest to northeast.

What would that mean if the models are underestimating the one to the Northeast?

Well this is the upper high feature that is supposed to evolve/transition into the Gulf. This is what the HWRF depicts and if it is already making its way into a favorable position, it could strengthen quicker.

Not saying this is a sure thing, but this is what I depict from water vapor loop

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[Aric Dunn]

this site will come in handy later today and tomorrow as it gets closer.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

Careful embedding images from non image sites, that puts a huge load on their servers from anyone who even looks at that post.

forgot that site auto generates new GIFs

[Michele B]

I think we need to be careful about referring to 99L as Hermine. If this storm does spin up, it may very well be after the storm coming off of Africa, that models are predicting spins up. 99L could in fact turn out to be Ian.

Maybe THAT's why she's been unwilling to "come out to play."

We've been calling her by the wrong name!

[SouthDadeFish]

It looks way better right now than it did at any time yesterday. Wind shear is still strong, but the low level vorticity max appears healthy. As long as convection can continue to fire, there remains a legitimate chance of tropical cyclogenesis if the shear lessens.

[TropicalSailor]

recon is on its way. should have a better idea in a couple hours and it gives it more time to organize..

'

Where did you see this? Just curious.

(EDIT: I see them now leaving Tampa)