ATL: HERMINE - Models

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3181 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:05 am

will keep going back and forth, stronger the system will go west the weaker will go to the panhandle.........we shall see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3182 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:41 am

FWIW GFS not impressed with it @ 12Z... nothing really at 36 hours

[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png[/img]
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image link
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3183 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:46 am

chris_fit wrote:FWIW GFS not impressed with it @ 12Z... nothing really at 36 hours

[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png[/img]


what ?

[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082612/gfs_mslp_uv850_us_6.png[/img]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3184 Postby ronyan » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:50 am

12z GFS vorticity is very elongated at 850mb level @ 60hrs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3185 Postby Janie2006 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:54 am

KLIX is having a bit of a sarcastic go at the models in this morning's AFD:

Unfortunately, the eventual forecast solution for the tropical
wave/Invest 99L is just as muddled this morning as it was 24 hours
ago. It seems that the amount of different solutions is only
limited by the amount of models run.


:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3186 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:07 am

Seems like the vort is a little stronger throughout the 12Z GFS so far when compared to the 6Z.. might be a squally day in SFla on Sunday/Monday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3187 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:11 am

Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3188 Postby centuryv58 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:14 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295


According to the discussion thread, you are reading it wrong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3189 Postby TropicalSailor » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295


Where are you getting this from? The shear has gone favorable in the 1500 shear map.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3190 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

centuryv58 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295


According to the discussion thread, you are reading it wrong.



This is the predicted shear on the GFS not what is currently around the system sorry if I did not clarify that correctly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3191 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:18 am

GFS has this system spending 3 or 4 days over open water and the strongest it depicts it is here

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=195
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3192 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:22 am

GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3193 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:25 am

CMC:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3194 Postby crownweather » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:27 am

Do you have a link for the text version of the UKMET model? TIA.

Siker wrote:GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3195 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:30 am

both the CMC and UKMET shifted west....interesting...probably a cliched in their runs.. :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3196 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:31 am

crownweather wrote:Do you have a link for the text version of the UKMET model? TIA.

Siker wrote:GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54


http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/western ... ic.current

Scroll down past the advisories.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3197 Postby LJFire1467 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:31 am

Just trying to get a grasp, can someone explain why if its stronger it will go further west but weaker will go north? I thought it was the opposite?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3198 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:33 am

LJFire1467 wrote:Just trying to get a grasp, can someone explain why if its stronger it will go further west but weaker will go north? I thought it was the opposite?


Yea - me too. Someone know the reason? I thought the stronger the storm, the more poleward it will want to go.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3199 Postby crownweather » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:33 am

Great, thank you!!


Siker wrote:
crownweather wrote:Do you have a link for the text version of the UKMET model? TIA.

Siker wrote:GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54


http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/western ... ic.current

Scroll down past the advisories.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3200 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:38 am

gfs 12z 168h

Image
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