ATL: HERMINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3181 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:05 am

will keep going back and forth, stronger the system will go west the weaker will go to the panhandle.........we shall see
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3182 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:41 am

FWIW GFS not impressed with it @ 12Z... nothing really at 36 hours

[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png[/img]
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image link
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3183 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:46 am

chris_fit wrote:FWIW GFS not impressed with it @ 12Z... nothing really at 36 hours

[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png[/img]


what ?

[img ]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016082612/gfs_mslp_uv850_us_6.png[/img]
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3184 Postby ronyan » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:50 am

12z GFS vorticity is very elongated at 850mb level @ 60hrs.

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3185 Postby Janie2006 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:54 am

KLIX is having a bit of a sarcastic go at the models in this morning's AFD:

Unfortunately, the eventual forecast solution for the tropical
wave/Invest 99L is just as muddled this morning as it was 24 hours
ago. It seems that the amount of different solutions is only
limited by the amount of models run.


:lol:
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3186 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:07 am

Seems like the vort is a little stronger throughout the 12Z GFS so far when compared to the 6Z.. might be a squally day in SFla on Sunday/Monday
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3187 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:11 am

Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
centuryv58
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:24 pm
Location: Southeast Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3188 Postby centuryv58 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:14 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295


According to the discussion thread, you are reading it wrong.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalSailor
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:24 am
Location: Panama City Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3189 Postby TropicalSailor » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295


Where are you getting this from? The shear has gone favorable in the 1500 shear map.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3190 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

centuryv58 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear still seems to be a problem according to the GFS if I am reading that correctly. Seems to be what keeps it weak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=295


According to the discussion thread, you are reading it wrong.



This is the predicted shear on the GFS not what is currently around the system sorry if I did not clarify that correctly.
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3191 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:18 am

GFS has this system spending 3 or 4 days over open water and the strongest it depicts it is here

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=195
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3192 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:22 am

GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3193 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:25 am

CMC:

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 595
Age: 50
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:
Contact crownweather

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3194 Postby crownweather » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:27 am

Do you have a link for the text version of the UKMET model? TIA.

Siker wrote:GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54
1 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3195 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:30 am

both the CMC and UKMET shifted west....interesting...probably a cliched in their runs.. :lol: :lol:
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3196 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:31 am

crownweather wrote:Do you have a link for the text version of the UKMET model? TIA.

Siker wrote:GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54


http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/western ... ic.current

Scroll down past the advisories.
2 likes   
Top
LJFire1467
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:49 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, Tx

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3197 Postby LJFire1467 » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:31 am

Just trying to get a grasp, can someone explain why if its stronger it will go further west but weaker will go north? I thought it was the opposite?
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3198 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:33 am

LJFire1467 wrote:Just trying to get a grasp, can someone explain why if its stronger it will go further west but weaker will go north? I thought it was the opposite?


Yea - me too. Someone know the reason? I thought the stronger the storm, the more poleward it will want to go.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 595
Age: 50
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:
Contact crownweather

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3199 Postby crownweather » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:33 am

Great, thank you!!


Siker wrote:
crownweather wrote:Do you have a link for the text version of the UKMET model? TIA.

Siker wrote:GFS shifts east, UKMET shifts west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.7N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.8N 82.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2016 84 26.1N 84.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.2N 86.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.08.2016 108 26.4N 87.0W 1001 29
1200UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.4N 87.9W 997 41
0000UTC 01.09.2016 132 26.7N 88.8W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 89.5W 986 54


http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/western ... ic.current

Scroll down past the advisories.
1 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3200 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:38 am

gfs 12z 168h

Image
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest