ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
it look their banding going on with 99l today
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
so low west of those storm by sat pic look low was in storm area
Last edited by floridasun78 on Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Worst than I thought, ASCAT missed the whole circulation of 99L, but at least it got 91L, pretty circulation on it.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
HurriGuy wrote:[img ]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.GIF[/img]
Well....that is quite the spike in lower convergence from the last 3 hours IF THIS IS TRUE
You can see a clear line of convergence in the 1 min high res satellite imagery.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:I was just noticing the BAM Medium, Shallow and Deep all have a similar track.
So the HWRF is apparently creating the poleward motion from rapid intensification.
Often when the BAM models line up it idicates low shear.
Interesting...did not know that. Thanks for sharing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
NDG wrote:Worst than I thought, ASCAT missed the whole circulation of 99L, but at least it got 91L, pretty circulation on it.
Like searching for bigfoot.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Really pronounced high towers now firing over the center. This is the most convection this system has had in a long time and maybe ever and it is now covering most of the center it appears.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Really pronounced high towers now firing over the center. This is the most convection this system has had in a long time and maybe ever and it is now covering most of the center it appears.
i notice same because i see banding tooo of storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Might be interesting at 2pm...or I could see NHC just keeping things the same instead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Something interesting starting to show on the long range Miami radar...


Last edited by ldelatorre on Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I am expecting classification today wether or not it is...the talk about it justifies it...I say NHC makes it a TD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:I am expecting classification today wether or not it is...the talk about it justifies it...I say NHC makes it a TD
If trends continue I could see later tonight or tomorrow. Personally this system looks good and shear is low in its path. Seems to have all the ingredients it needs barring some magical pop up shear that we have seen over the past 4 years.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
i hope nhc noticing what we see we not pro mets but some of you are good at looking at data
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
When you watch the 1-min visible imagery, you can see that the upper-level outflow from storms firing along the surface convergence, south of Andros Island, is moving off to the NW. This suggests that the divergent outflow from the strong convection is at least temporarily creating a local minimum in wind shear near the area of strongest surface vorticity. Low-level westerly inflow looks as strong as it ever has with this wave. The convection is still largely asymmetric, displaced to the downshear side of the disturbance. That being said, persistent convection will continue to lower surface pressures and generate additional vorticity, possibly resulting in a surface circulation. I would watch the area just east of the convergence line, near 23.2 N 78.2W for a possible surface circulation to develop if convection can continue into the nighttime hours. It still has a ways to go, but this is far closer than the naked swirl we observed a few days ago.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Still looks like it is having a stacking problem, with the LLC leading the MCL.. either that or it's elongated WNW to ESE... to my untrained eyes.. regardless, best its looked in day IMO...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
Yeah it is probably going to come to save the day as has been the case in every storm in recent years. ULLs seem to pop up at random recently in the Atlantic and unless it dies out (unlikely it seems) this system will feel its effects.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
and that just might be the show stopper ... but looks to be running parallel to 99l ATM
Last edited by Frank P on Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Notice the nice ML circulation that it has now developed closer to the LL vorticity.


Last edited by NDG on Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
tarheelprogrammer wrote:SoupBone wrote:Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
Yeah it is probably going to come to save the day as has been the case in every storm in recent years. ULLs seem to pop up at random recently in the Atlantic and unless it dies out (unlikely it seems) this system will feel its effects.
I think that's the UUL that caused some shear over 91L yesterday and moved SW (and weakening but I can be wrong on that).
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