ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

it look their banding going on with 99l today

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[floridasun78]

so low west of those storm by sat pic look low was in storm area

[NDG]

Worst than I thought, ASCAT missed the whole circulation of 99L, but at least it got 91L, pretty circulation on it.

[RL3AO]

[img ]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.GIF[/img]


Well....that is quite the spike in lower convergence from the last 3 hours IF THIS IS TRUE

You can see a clear line of convergence in the 1 min high res satellite imagery.

[hohnywx]

I was just noticing the BAM Medium, Shallow and Deep all have a similar track.
So the HWRF is apparently creating the poleward motion from rapid intensification.
Often when the BAM models line up it idicates low shear.

Interesting...did not know that. Thanks for sharing.

[Agua]

Worst than I thought, ASCAT missed the whole circulation of 99L, but at least it got 91L, pretty circulation on it.

Like searching for bigfoot.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Really pronounced high towers now firing over the center. This is the most convection this system has had in a long time and maybe ever and it is now covering most of the center it appears.

[floridasun78]

Really pronounced high towers now firing over the center. This is the most convection this system has had in a long time and maybe ever and it is now covering most of the center it appears.

i notice same because i see banding tooo of storms

[SeGaBob]

Might be interesting at 2pm...or I could see NHC just keeping things the same instead.

[ldelatorre]

Something interesting starting to show on the long range Miami radar...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I am expecting classification today wether or not it is...the talk about it justifies it...I say NHC makes it a TD

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am expecting classification today wether or not it is...the talk about it justifies it...I say NHC makes it a TD

If trends continue I could see later tonight or tomorrow. Personally this system looks good and shear is low in its path. Seems to have all the ingredients it needs barring some magical pop up shear that we have seen over the past 4 years.

[floridasun78]

i hope nhc noticing what we see we not pro mets but some of you are good at looking at data

[SouthDadeFish]

When you watch the 1-min visible imagery, you can see that the upper-level outflow from storms firing along the surface convergence, south of Andros Island, is moving off to the NW. This suggests that the divergent outflow from the strong convection is at least temporarily creating a local minimum in wind shear near the area of strongest surface vorticity. Low-level westerly inflow looks as strong as it ever has with this wave. The convection is still largely asymmetric, displaced to the downshear side of the disturbance. That being said, persistent convection will continue to lower surface pressures and generate additional vorticity, possibly resulting in a surface circulation. I would watch the area just east of the convergence line, near 23.2 N 78.2W for a possible surface circulation to develop if convection can continue into the nighttime hours. It still has a ways to go, but this is far closer than the naked swirl we observed a few days ago.

[Frank P]

Still looks like it is having a stacking problem, with the LLC leading the MCL.. either that or it's elongated WNW to ESE... to my untrained eyes.. regardless, best its looked in day IMO...

[SoupBone]

Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Yeah it is probably going to come to save the day as has been the case in every storm in recent years. ULLs seem to pop up at random recently in the Atlantic and unless it dies out (unlikely it seems) this system will feel its effects.

[Frank P]

and that just might be the show stopper ... but looks to be running parallel to 99l ATM

[NDG]

Notice the nice ML circulation that it has now developed closer to the LL vorticity.

[JaxGator]

Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Yeah it is probably going to come to save the day as has been the case in every storm in recent years. ULLs seem to pop up at random recently in the Atlantic and unless it dies out (unlikely it seems) this system will feel its effects.

I think that's the UUL that caused some shear over 91L yesterday and moved SW (and weakening but I can be wrong on that).