ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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sphelps8681
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3381 Postby sphelps8681 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:39 pm

I read that 91L could have an impact on the ridge by weakening it near the Carolinas thus changing the setup we have now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3382 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:47 pm

Summary of today's events and what the future holds:

99L made many improvements, but expect it to start looking semi-bad again soon.

Also expect this forum to go dead like it did yesterday evening.

We'll most likely do this allover again tomorrow morning.

The real key is when it is in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3383 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:47 pm

Hard to ignore the ECM with closing off a low out in the Gulf 2 days out regardless of it's past failure with this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3384 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:51 pm

Vort is definitely picking up. Went from 4 to 6 in the last 90 min. Centered 23.9N 79.0W
I can see something starting to roll on MIMIC-TPW.
Might get a little help from the convective debris coming off the glades.
Air to its west at CAPE = 3500, Theta E = 364
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3385 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:54 pm

Seems like many aren't putting much stock in the latest Euro. We're talking medium range here. Careful.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3386 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:55 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Seems like many aren't putting much stock in the latest Euro. We're talking medium range here. Careful.


I know you are not a fan of the UKMET but it is as bullish as the Euro. Usually if the Euro and UKMET show something you have to watch though they did blow it big time as far as Bahamas development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3387 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:56 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:I read that 91L could have an impact on the ridge by weakening it near the Carolinas thus changing the setup we have now.

Doesn't seem that way, ridge is still holding pretty strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3388 Postby Frank2 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:58 pm

Tropicaltidbits.com need to remove the word storm from their map.

Latest Cuban radar shows no cyclonic turning of echos in area of weak low:

https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.78224
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3389 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:59 pm

In my opinion, 99L is getting better organized and I would NOT laugh off the latest EURO run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3390 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Seems like many aren't putting much stock in the latest Euro. We're talking medium range here. Careful.


I know you are not a fan of the UKMET but it is as bullish as the Euro. Usually if the Euro and UKMET show something you have to watch though they did blow it big time as far as Bahamas development.


Heh I gave it a hard time the other day but the UKie has sure been dead set on a cane in the gulf impacting the panhandle since the Euro backed off. Now that they have a pretty strong agreement I'm taking note!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3391 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:16 pm

I think the 18z location is wrong. I believe 99L is back the SE of that location now, or redeveloping near the mid level center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3392 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:19 pm

I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.

Speed it up......

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3393 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:19 pm

Doesn't look like Tallahassee NWS is to impressed with any of the models.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Due to the continued uncertainty with the ultimate fate of Invest 99L, we will not make any significant changes to the current extended forecast at this time. We do not have much confidence in any of the individual model runs today due to continued run to run inconsistency and lack of agreement with each other. The 12z Euro made a huge change today and says that we will be dealing with a system in the Gulf for the entire week, but its run to run consistency has been especially poor the last few days. The 12z UKMET also lingers the system in the Gulf through 144 hours. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing little development, although its 12z run did trend a little bit stronger with the feature. The 12z Canadian moves the system in our direction fairly quickly, but it appears to be too far north in the very early stages of its development. Regardless of development, people in our forecast area, especially at the coast, should at least prepare for the possibility of heavy rain and hazardous boating and beach conditions at some point next week. Until the system becomes better defined (if it ever does), the models will probably continue to show poor agreement and run to run inconsistencies.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3394 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:27 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.

Speed it up......

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600


I am going to have to agree with you.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3395 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:27 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again. ...snip


I think that's a mid-level feature, not a surface feature. It's well-separated from the surface feature (SW of Andros Island), which is why it isn't developing. Of course, sometimes the surface low can re-form beneath the mid-level circulation. I think there's too much westerly shear for that to happen now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3396 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:29 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.


At the moment the surface observations seem to support the LLC being displaced westward, and the CIMSS 850hPa vorticity product has the lower level circulation a bit west. The developing convection will need to be watched, but don't be fooled by a neat mid-level circulation :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3397 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:31 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.


At the moment the surface observations seem to support the LLC being displaced westward, and the CIMSS 850hPa vorticity product has the lower level circulation a bit west. The developing convection will need to be watched, but don't be fooled by a neat mid-level circulation :D


I disagree. This map is 2 hours old. That could definitely be some sort of LLC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3398 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:32 pm

Image

850mb

Image

500mb

Again this is a little old
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3399 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:35 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Doesn't look like Tallahassee NWS is to impressed with any of the models.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Due to the continued uncertainty with the ultimate fate of Invest 99L, we will not make any significant changes to the current extended forecast at this time. We do not have much confidence in any of the individual model runs today due to continued run to run inconsistency and lack of agreement with each other. The 12z Euro made a huge change today and says that we will be dealing with a system in the Gulf for the entire week, but its run to run consistency has been especially poor the last few days. The 12z UKMET also lingers the system in the Gulf through 144 hours. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing little development, although its 12z run did trend a little bit stronger with the feature. The 12z Canadian moves the system in our direction fairly quickly, but it appears to be too far north in the very early stages of its development. Regardless of development, people in our forecast area, especially at the coast, should at least prepare for the possibility of heavy rain and hazardous boating and beach conditions at some point next week. Until the system becomes better defined (if it ever does), the models will probably continue to show poor agreement and run to run inconsistencies.


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I think that is a pretty good synopsis of the situation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3400 Postby sphelps8681 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again. ...snip


I think that's a mid-level feature, not a surface feature. It's well-separated from the surface feature (SW of Andros Island), which is why it isn't developing. Of course, sometimes the surface low can re-form beneath the mid-level circulation. I think there's too much westerly shear for that to happen now.


I also read that when 91l reaches close to the carolinas the mid level will go up the east coast of Florida toward the weaken ridge caused by 91l and the surface feature will head to the Gulf.
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