ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 785
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I read that 91L could have an impact on the ridge by weakening it near the Carolinas thus changing the setup we have now.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Summary of today's events and what the future holds:
99L made many improvements, but expect it to start looking semi-bad again soon.
Also expect this forum to go dead like it did yesterday evening.
We'll most likely do this allover again tomorrow morning.
The real key is when it is in the Gulf.
99L made many improvements, but expect it to start looking semi-bad again soon.
Also expect this forum to go dead like it did yesterday evening.
We'll most likely do this allover again tomorrow morning.
The real key is when it is in the Gulf.
4 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Hard to ignore the ECM with closing off a low out in the Gulf 2 days out regardless of it's past failure with this system.
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Vort is definitely picking up. Went from 4 to 6 in the last 90 min. Centered 23.9N 79.0W
I can see something starting to roll on MIMIC-TPW.
Might get a little help from the convective debris coming off the glades.
Air to its west at CAPE = 3500, Theta E = 364
I can see something starting to roll on MIMIC-TPW.
Might get a little help from the convective debris coming off the glades.
Air to its west at CAPE = 3500, Theta E = 364
2 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Seems like many aren't putting much stock in the latest Euro. We're talking medium range here. Careful.
2 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23693
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
PTrackerLA wrote:Seems like many aren't putting much stock in the latest Euro. We're talking medium range here. Careful.
I know you are not a fan of the UKMET but it is as bullish as the Euro. Usually if the Euro and UKMET show something you have to watch though they did blow it big time as far as Bahamas development.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4059
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
sphelps8681 wrote:I read that 91L could have an impact on the ridge by weakening it near the Carolinas thus changing the setup we have now.
Doesn't seem that way, ridge is still holding pretty strong.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Tropicaltidbits.com need to remove the word storm from their map.
Latest Cuban radar shows no cyclonic turning of echos in area of weak low:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.78224
Latest Cuban radar shows no cyclonic turning of echos in area of weak low:
https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.78224
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6684
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
In my opinion, 99L is getting better organized and I would NOT laugh off the latest EURO run.
1 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:PTrackerLA wrote:Seems like many aren't putting much stock in the latest Euro. We're talking medium range here. Careful.
I know you are not a fan of the UKMET but it is as bullish as the Euro. Usually if the Euro and UKMET show something you have to watch though they did blow it big time as far as Bahamas development.
Heh I gave it a hard time the other day but the UKie has sure been dead set on a cane in the gulf impacting the panhandle since the Euro backed off. Now that they have a pretty strong agreement I'm taking note!
1 likes
- stormhunter7
- Category 2
- Posts: 763
- Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
- Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I think the 18z location is wrong. I believe 99L is back the SE of that location now, or redeveloping near the mid level center.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.
Speed it up......
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600
Speed it up......
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 907
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
- Location: Ozark, AL
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Doesn't look like Tallahassee NWS is to impressed with any of the models.
Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Due to the continued uncertainty with the ultimate fate of Invest 99L, we will not make any significant changes to the current extended forecast at this time. We do not have much confidence in any of the individual model runs today due to continued run to run inconsistency and lack of agreement with each other. The 12z Euro made a huge change today and says that we will be dealing with a system in the Gulf for the entire week, but its run to run consistency has been especially poor the last few days. The 12z UKMET also lingers the system in the Gulf through 144 hours. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing little development, although its 12z run did trend a little bit stronger with the feature. The 12z Canadian moves the system in our direction fairly quickly, but it appears to be too far north in the very early stages of its development. Regardless of development, people in our forecast area, especially at the coast, should at least prepare for the possibility of heavy rain and hazardous boating and beach conditions at some point next week. Until the system becomes better defined (if it ever does), the models will probably continue to show poor agreement and run to run inconsistencies.
Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.
Speed it up......
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600
I am going to have to agree with you.
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23010
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again. ...snip
I think that's a mid-level feature, not a surface feature. It's well-separated from the surface feature (SW of Andros Island), which is why it isn't developing. Of course, sometimes the surface low can re-form beneath the mid-level circulation. I think there's too much westerly shear for that to happen now.
1 likes
- TheAustinMan
- Category 5
- Posts: 1047
- Age: 25
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
- Location: United States
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.
At the moment the surface observations seem to support the LLC being displaced westward, and the CIMSS 850hPa vorticity product has the lower level circulation a bit west. The developing convection will need to be watched, but don't be fooled by a neat mid-level circulation

1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
TheAustinMan wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.
At the moment the surface observations seem to support the LLC being displaced westward, and the CIMSS 850hPa vorticity product has the lower level circulation a bit west. The developing convection will need to be watched, but don't be fooled by a neat mid-level circulation
I disagree. This map is 2 hours old. That could definitely be some sort of LLC
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
850mb
500mb
Again this is a little old
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3400
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
bamajammer4eva wrote:Doesn't look like Tallahassee NWS is to impressed with any of the models..LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Due to the continued uncertainty with the ultimate fate of Invest 99L, we will not make any significant changes to the current extended forecast at this time. We do not have much confidence in any of the individual model runs today due to continued run to run inconsistency and lack of agreement with each other. The 12z Euro made a huge change today and says that we will be dealing with a system in the Gulf for the entire week, but its run to run consistency has been especially poor the last few days. The 12z UKMET also lingers the system in the Gulf through 144 hours. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing little development, although its 12z run did trend a little bit stronger with the feature. The 12z Canadian moves the system in our direction fairly quickly, but it appears to be too far north in the very early stages of its development. Regardless of development, people in our forecast area, especially at the coast, should at least prepare for the possibility of heavy rain and hazardous boating and beach conditions at some point next week. Until the system becomes better defined (if it ever does), the models will probably continue to show poor agreement and run to run inconsistencies.
Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
I think that is a pretty good synopsis of the situation.
1 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 785
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
- Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again. ...snip
I think that's a mid-level feature, not a surface feature. It's well-separated from the surface feature (SW of Andros Island), which is why it isn't developing. Of course, sometimes the surface low can re-form beneath the mid-level circulation. I think there's too much westerly shear for that to happen now.
I also read that when 91l reaches close to the carolinas the mid level will go up the east coast of Florida toward the weaken ridge caused by 91l and the surface feature will head to the Gulf.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests