ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

We've now had 2 atlantic systems declared after 99L that have gone on to develop. Lame

[La Sirena]

Here in the Lower Keys, skies are darkening up and the wind is picking up quite a bit. Thanks for all the info y'all provide here! This will be interesting to see how it fares into the GOM.

[caneman]

We've now had 2 atlantic systems declared after 99L that have gone on to develop. Lame

As they say in sports, 'past perfornance isn't a predictor for future success'. Be careful what you wish for NHC been saying wait til Monday... if come Monday then I may jump,off the wagon

[artist]

http://www.wavcis.lsu.edu/forecasts/for ... c=currents
It is also traversing the loop current which only adds fuel.

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see showers moving around circulation.

[HurriGuy]

I still would not expect much development today

[wxman57]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

[JaxGator]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Thanks wxman57, me and others in Jax will keep an eye on it. It's been awhile since a hurricane has made landfall near the big bend but not impossible.

[Blinhart]

It just wants to be the "I" storm, it knows it will be history making as one of the weirdest systems ever.

[Dean4Storms]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

That would be very rare. Hurricanes rarely strike the NE Gulf Coast from Tampa to Apalachicola. My bet is on the FL Panhandle.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

[Evil Jeremy]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Thanks wxman57, me and others in Jax will keep an eye on it. It's been awhile since a hurricane has made landfall near the big bend but not impossible.

It's funny, I've also been tracking this from Jax all week. Mid-week some models were saying Jax should keep an eye on this from the east, now they're saying from the west. The tropics can be funny like that. Either way, I'll continue to keep my eyes on 99L.

[abajan]

So, I go to the National Hurricane Center site, see that TD 8 has formed and think to myself, "Finally!", only to discover it ain't 99L. Silly me.

[floridasun78]

no rain in miami we expecting alot rain today not here yet i see keys likely see rain next few hour it look like 99l moving at 5mph

[GCANE]

That convection at 23.8N 802.W is looking pretty good IMHO.
It is definitely pushing the UL winds around and creating an outflow.
Its in the center of the vorticity max.
Going to be running into a very strong ridge of unstable air just to its west.
CAPE = 3000, Theta-e = 363 to 366.
Only thing is for the mid-level dry-air infeed to stop.
That could come soon if popups develop later this afternoon over the glades.

[centuryv58]

Latest GFS, Jax gets it from the west. This is been the case for a couple runs of GFS,

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/769930579496153089

[SoupBone]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

I'm not at all picking on you, but this has been the theme of this system for days now. Wait a few more days...

[bg1]

It just wants to be the "I" storm, it knows it will be history making as one of the weirdest systems ever.

I had thought that myself!

[JaxGator]

Latest GFS, Jax gets it from the west. This is been the case for a couple runs of GFS,

And the latest Euro too. We'll see if it trends more. We need the rain here in Jax but not a storm on the scale the Euro has.

[sphelps8681]

Levi's Tropical Tidbits from Saturday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Explains a lot on what is happening.