ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Shear seems to keep moving along with the system, but it's slightly weaker than it was yesterday evening.

[psyclone]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.

[tolakram]

saved gif

[Aric Dunn]

We wont be waiting much longer.

[BobHarlem]

Recon should be out there at a good time to see if there's anything to this.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm calling no TD today. Still looks pretty disorganized.

[GCANE]

Center is beginning to fill in with cumulus and a small tower firing off just to the east.
Cloud tops are staying relatively cold for this time of day.

[jlauderdal]

99l squall rolling through fll

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the circ that developed yesterday in that deep convection has survived. its beginning to due small cyclonic to the wsw as Convection is increasing this morning.. of course shear is a problem if it stays as far south as possible it wont be as bad.

[NDG]

Chances of the recon finding a TD this afternoon is getting higher. IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.

There is NOT a big hurricane history in the FL Big Bend area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

[tolakram]

Here's the link the the rapid scan again, big images, 150 frames.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160828&endtime=latest&nframes=150&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1200&aniheight=1200

[psyclone]

No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.

There is NOT a big hurricane history in the FL Big Bend area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

Yes there is. believe it or not time began before 1950. Three substantial hurricanes hit this region in a month in 1886.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the 500mb Vorticity is closing in on the 850 and surface vort. Give this till tomorrow and I think we have TS!

[Nimbus]

I wouldn't mind waiting around till Tuesday for stable track and 72 hour landfall predictions.
The low level circulation is shallow and could take 48 hours to build back up.
One thing that concerns me is that the low level center isn't elongated so by Tuesday this system could be ready to bomb if the shear lets up.

[MississippiWx]

I've seen several people mention how this will not be classified today or even tomorrow. If there is one thing I've learned about this system it is that I should never rule out other possibilities even if the chances seem slim.

[Dean4Storms]

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.

There is NOT a big hurricane history in the FL Big Bend area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

Yes there is. believe it or not time began before 1950. Three substantial hurricanes hit this region in a month in 1886.

Weather patterns have changed significantly since the late 1800's, back then NE FL and SE GA also saw many Hurricanes, but going by the last 70 yrs or so under much better observation with satellites, Hurricane Hunters, Radar, etc.... the FL Big Bend has not seen nearly the Hurricane activity as the Panhandle nor most of the remaining Gulf Coast. There have been a number of Tropical Storms largely due to late or early storms that get swept eastward in advance of digging CONUS troughs which usually induce shear and keep them from becoming Hurricanes that have impacted the Big Bend area over the years.

[psyclone]

Things can change very fast in the heart of hurricane season. While this disturbance hasn't been able to do much so far, it also hasn't dissipated despite non stop bombardment from shear, dry air, land based disruption...there's a tenacity that cannot be ignored.

[Frank P]

Looking at the rapid scan sat loop and radar out of the keys sure looks like a TD is forming ......... best its looks for days, at least during the daylight hours..

[chaser1]

Things can change very fast in the heart of hurricane season. While this disturbance hasn't been able to do much so far, it also hasn't dissipated despite non stop bombardment from shear, dry air, land based disruption...there's a tenacity that cannot be ignored.

Yep, that more than anything leads me to believe that "something more" seems apt to come out of all this. Focus of potential risk definately seems a bit more targeted to an area roughtly between Tampa and New Orleans (though I'd likely guess Ceder Key to Tallahassee area)