ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3701 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:23 am

Shear seems to keep moving along with the system, but it's slightly weaker than it was yesterday evening.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3702 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:25 am

wxman57 wrote:No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3703 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:25 am

saved gif

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3704 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:27 am

We wont be waiting much longer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3705 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:28 am

Recon should be out there at a good time to see if there's anything to this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3706 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:31 am

I'm calling no TD today. Still looks pretty disorganized.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3707 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:35 am

Center is beginning to fill in with cumulus and a small tower firing off just to the east.
Cloud tops are staying relatively cold for this time of day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3708 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:36 am

99l squall rolling through fll
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3709 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:39 am

looks like the circ that developed yesterday in that deep convection has survived. its beginning to due small cyclonic to the wsw as Convection is increasing this morning.. of course shear is a problem if it stays as far south as possible it wont be as bad.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3710 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:40 am

Chances of the recon finding a TD this afternoon is getting higher. IMO.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3711 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:41 am

psyclone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.


There is NOT a big hurricane history in the FL Big Bend area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3712 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:44 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3713 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:48 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
psyclone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.

Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.


There is NOT a big hurricane history in the FL Big Bend area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

Yes there is. believe it or not time began before 1950. Three substantial hurricanes hit this region in a month in 1886.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3714 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:48 am

Looks like the 500mb Vorticity is closing in on the 850 and surface vort. Give this till tomorrow and I think we have TS!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3715 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:50 am

I wouldn't mind waiting around till Tuesday for stable track and 72 hour landfall predictions.
The low level circulation is shallow and could take 48 hours to build back up.
One thing that concerns me is that the low level center isn't elongated so by Tuesday this system could be ready to bomb if the shear lets up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3716 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:52 am

I've seen several people mention how this will not be classified today or even tomorrow. If there is one thing I've learned about this system it is that I should never rule out other possibilities even if the chances seem slim.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3717 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:53 am

psyclone wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
psyclone wrote:Yikes. I hope I didn't curse myself. I've got about a dozen trees within reach of my condo. Kinda tempers my enthusiasm for wind. The nature coast/big bend area has a significant hurricane history. the fact that they've been off the hook for awhile means many think they're exempt. not even close to true. the state 24 hour rainfall record at Yankeetown from 1950 still stands today...was from hurricane Easy, which delivered winds over 100mph to cedar key for 9 1/2 hours. that region has a fascinating and ferocious hurricane history. it's on a luck streak no different from tampa bay. I'll keep a wary eye on 99L until it is gone.


There is NOT a big hurricane history in the FL Big Bend area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

Yes there is. believe it or not time began before 1950. Three substantial hurricanes hit this region in a month in 1886.


Weather patterns have changed significantly since the late 1800's, back then NE FL and SE GA also saw many Hurricanes, but going by the last 70 yrs or so under much better observation with satellites, Hurricane Hunters, Radar, etc.... the FL Big Bend has not seen nearly the Hurricane activity as the Panhandle nor most of the remaining Gulf Coast. There have been a number of Tropical Storms largely due to late or early storms that get swept eastward in advance of digging CONUS troughs which usually induce shear and keep them from becoming Hurricanes that have impacted the Big Bend area over the years.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3718 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:54 am

Things can change very fast in the heart of hurricane season. While this disturbance hasn't been able to do much so far, it also hasn't dissipated despite non stop bombardment from shear, dry air, land based disruption...there's a tenacity that cannot be ignored.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3719 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:02 pm

Looking at the rapid scan sat loop and radar out of the keys sure looks like a TD is forming ......... best its looks for days, at least during the daylight hours..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3720 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:03 pm

psyclone wrote:Things can change very fast in the heart of hurricane season. While this disturbance hasn't been able to do much so far, it also hasn't dissipated despite non stop bombardment from shear, dry air, land based disruption...there's a tenacity that cannot be ignored.


Yep, that more than anything leads me to believe that "something more" seems apt to come out of all this. Focus of potential risk definately seems a bit more targeted to an area roughtly between Tampa and New Orleans (though I'd likely guess Ceder Key to Tallahassee area)
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