ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3721 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:05 pm

Nimbus wrote:I wouldn't mind waiting around till Tuesday for stable track and 72 hour landfall predictions.
The low level circulation is shallow and could take 48 hours to build back up.
One thing that concerns me is that the low level center isn't elongated so by Tuesday this system could be ready to bomb if the shear lets up.


Bingo. I remember Charley's pressure crashing in a 4 hour period and it moving from a nominal Cat 2 to a Cat 4 quickly and if it had stayed on the projected course towards Tampa, it may have intensified further.

Once these GoM systems get organized, especially with the extra warm SST's we have, watch out.

Thus why I'm out tying down banana trees and anchoring all of my fruit trees in the calm cool weather we're having (well, 90 is cooler than the 99 we had the other day). :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3722 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:05 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3723 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:06 pm

Given present shear conditions, I just dont see too much changing before tomm. Sure, recon could well confirm what we already know. Enough data exists showing light west winds at the surface. Convection will again blow up, then blow off. I'd be surprised for 99L to be classified as a depression today (regardless of model support or politics)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#3724 Postby N2FSU » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:06 pm

NOAA43 is wheels up out of Tampa.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3725 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:07 pm

Frank P wrote:Looking at the rapid scan sat loop and radar out of the keys sure looks like a TD is forming ......... best its looks for days, at least during the daylight hours..


But it probably has a pressure gradient shaped like a coconut so it will just slowly spin until convection can fire up over a prolonged period near the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3726 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:07 pm

Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3727 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:09 pm

Nimbus wrote:
Frank P wrote:Looking at the rapid scan sat loop and radar out of the keys sure looks like a TD is forming ......... best its looks for days, at least during the daylight hours..


But it probably has a pressure gradient shaped like a coconut so it will just slowly spin until convection can fire up over a prolonged period near the center.


Is recon still scheduled to fly in at 1:00 today?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3728 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:09 pm

chaser1 wrote:
psyclone wrote:Things can change very fast in the heart of hurricane season. While this disturbance hasn't been able to do much so far, it also hasn't dissipated despite non stop bombardment from shear, dry air, land based disruption...there's a tenacity that cannot be ignored.


Yep, that more than anything leads me to believe that "something more" seems apt to come out of all this. Focus of potential risk definately seems a bit more targeted to an area roughtly between Tampa and New Orleans (though I'd likely guess Ceder Key to Tallahassee area)

I would agree at this point...somewhere east of Indian pass and above bayport...HPC has bucketloads of precip in that area too with an abrupt cut off west of cape san blas. I'll be monitoring the evolution of those forecasts as well for clues on what the smart people are thinking..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3729 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:10 pm

Frank P wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
Frank P wrote:Looking at the rapid scan sat loop and radar out of the keys sure looks like a TD is forming ......... best its looks for days, at least during the daylight hours..


But it probably has a pressure gradient shaped like a coconut so it will just slowly spin until convection can fire up over a prolonged period near the center.


Is recon still scheduled to fly in at 1:00 today?


I guess not since they are not in the air already..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3730 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.


I think no later than 12 hours to be classified, maybe as early as 5 as you say... watching the radar and rapid scan almost as good as recon, but not quite!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3731 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.


I would be shocked if they give it a 5 pm TD designation. 0500 tomorrow? Yup, that's what I think, as it will finally move into an area where the shear is relaxing as storms finally build consistently around the LLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3732 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:12 pm

I think I would call this one. ULL casualty trading energy for shear.



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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3733 Postby HurriGuy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:12 pm

My personal opinion, which has changed in the last 2 hours, I think a depression is developing as we speak looking at visible
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3734 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:13 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.


I would be shocked if they give it a 5 pm TD designation. 0500 tomorrow? Yup, that's what I think, as it will finally move into an area where the shear is relaxing as storms finally build consistently around the LLC.


agreed they may wait. but if recon finds a closed system and we have had consistent convection since yesterday now. by definition it would be a TD. im one for accurate historical data ..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3735 Postby stormreader » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:16 pm

Left lingering in SE or Central Gulf senario?? Not sold at this point on the hook northeast which is dominant forecast. As system clears the straits and enters GOM it should feel the influence of the ULL over Tex-La coast. So should be a north component. But my understanding is that this effect will gradually be weakening at that time. Ridging beginning to reassert itself. If that is the case you would have a strengthening storm/hurricane lingering in the north east or north central GOM. In my mind (at this time of year) you might find a slow drift wnw. depends on how much ridging builds back in on northern Gulf coast. I think there is a lot of healthy skepticism right now about this late Aug hook into the Big Bend or Tampa area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3736 Postby HurriGuy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:17 pm

Radar is really looking promising
Recon perfect timing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3737 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:17 pm

Now getting a pop up on the NW side of the CoC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3738 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:20 pm

The CoC is sitting right in the 3000 CAPE Ridge
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3739 Postby LCfromFL » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:20 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
wxman57 wrote:No development today or tomorrow, most likely. Wait for Tuesday afternoon. Recon will confirm a TD then. Watch out northern FL Peninsula on Thursday. Could be a hurricane landfall north of Tampa.


Thanks wxman57, me and others in Jax will keep an eye on it. It's been awhile since a hurricane has made landfall near the big bend but not impossible.


It's funny, I've also been tracking this from Jax all week. Mid-week some models were saying Jax should keep an eye on this from the east, now they're saying from the west. The tropics can be funny like that. Either way, I'll continue to keep my eyes on 99L.


I'm leaving tomorrow for a business trip in CA this week. I'm wondering if I should try to take the redeye home Thursday night/Friday morning or wait and fly home on Friday. Guess time will tell with this thing. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3740 Postby N2FSU » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Frank P wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
But it probably has a pressure gradient shaped like a coconut so it will just slowly spin until convection can fire up over a prolonged period near the center.


Is recon still scheduled to fly in at 1:00 today?


I guess not since they are not in the air already..


According to FlightAware they were wheels up 16 mins ago:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43
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