Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[Alyono]

lets not forget that ONLY the MU develops this

No other model is doing anything with it. I'd say development chances are no higher than 25%

I respect the fact that you're a professional Meteorologist, and maybe you weren't aware, but the ECMWF also has been developing this disturbance. In fact, the ECMWF is coming in stronger on this run compared to the 12z run.

I see now. Develops it as it approaches the Caribbean. It also develops Nine more.

Perhaps the 12Z run was BS overall

[Dylan]

lets not forget that ONLY the MU develops this

No other model is doing anything with it. I'd say development chances are no higher than 25%

I respect the fact that you're a professional Meteorologist, and maybe you weren't aware, but the ECMWF also has been developing this disturbance. In fact, the ECMWF is coming in stronger on this run compared to the 12z run.

I see now. Develops it as it approaches the Caribbean. It also develops Nine more.

Perhaps the 12Z run was BS overall

I noticed the EC has had its issues with TC's in the deep tropics for several years now, but as a forecaster, I can't ignore consistency. The MU & EC have been a dumpster fire this year, but something like this definitely is worth monitoring.

[Dylan]

Looks like the EC wants to phase TD9 & an incoming trough, to create a giant weakness over the central Atlantic. But then there is the mid-level ridge building over the East Coast, probably a bad thing if it stays weak until reaching the Lesser Antilles.

[Dylan]

It's quite a ways out, but the EC is showing a 594dm ridge building over New England at Day 8, which is quite a dangerous pattern with a hurricane coming underneath. Hurricanes are like heat-engines that can help build ridges. It'll be interesting to see where this run takes P25.

[Alyono]

weird end of the run. It is well east of the previous because it develops another TC off of the East Coast, which causes the ridge to weaken.

[Dylan]

weird end of the run. It is well east of the previous because it develops another TC off of the East Coast, which causes the ridge to weaken.

Exactly. What the heck is the Euro doing? Cutting off a piece of the trough that TD9 phases with?

It's never easy anymore these days. It feels like things were a lot more clean-cut when it came to forecasting the "Red Meat" systems of the early 2000's.

[Hammy]

Models all seem to have backed off on development within the five day period--could be another sanity-breaking week like TD9's wave.

[chaser1]

Dylan, thank you for your newly added (and so accurate) description of the model's handling of P25, above. "The MU & EC have been a dumpster fire this year" - No truer words describe how nearly all the models have performed this year.

[cycloneye]

Brief summary of 06z GFS run. It begins to develop as it moves thru 50w,then moves thru the northern Leewards,close to the north of Puerto Rico,Hispanola and Bahamas.While it moves thru the area it deepens.I stop there.

[cycloneye]

The setup is perfect for that.

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/770214622234284032

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa later today or tonight. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[RL3AO]

It usually not as much of a problem in August/September, but that thing is going to be moving rather quickly. Might explain some of the model retreat in development.

[LarryWx]

It usually not as much of a problem in August/September, but that thing is going to be moving rather quickly. Might explain some of the model retreat in development.

Yeah, per the 0Z Euro after moving only 10-15 mph through late WED, it speeds up
to near 20 mph for the average of the subsequent 3 days underneath the strong high. Is 20 mph fast enough to typically slow development? Afterward, it slows down considerably, especially for days 8-10.

[LarryWx]

I think I see a rotation near 13N, 13W moving only a little north of due west per this:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

[AJC3]

I think I see a rotation near 13N, 13W moving only a little north of due west per this:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Dusty ol' Uncle SAL, no TC's pal. lol

[cycloneye]

You can see the gray aspect west of the African coast as a big sal outbreak is ongoing that will slow development in the short term.The models concur.

[RL3AO]

When you have a strong ridge forming there that's required to get the system far enough west, it also happens to deliver NE'rly flow across NW Africa = SAL Outbreak. However, the environment is usually better at moderating the dry airmass this time of year vs say July.

[centuryv58]

I think I see a rotation near 13N, 13W moving only a little north of due west per this:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Dusty ol' Uncle SAL, no TC's pal. lol

I think its getting a little late in the season to worry about serious or persistent SAL outbreaks.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS.Let's see how it has this system after 40W.

[cycloneye]

A little bit more stronger as it passes 50W.