ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?

[otterlyspicey]

After these many, MANY days of watching a tremendously sad looking storm, it's hard not to jump the gun the moment it looks "less sad" and be like "Ahhh look she's coming to life quickly!" But I have to keep telling myself if we had never seen the storm before, she would look kinda rough and certainly doesn't have the most ideal atmospheric situations. And maybe excitement would be less than it is. I do love the excitement though lol. Still, it's hard to not make excuses/scenarios (some which are semi-realistic) to see a way this can still become more than a TS/Cat 1.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on radar alone this might be a 50mph+ tropical storm when recon gets there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

When is recon due on station?

leaving in a half hour for td9

plane is in the air I would presume a pressure around 1004 given the current structure and convection. winds might be pretty darn close to TS as well.

[Aric Dunn]

long range radar showing pretty decent curved band on south and east side. looking pretty far up but definitely becoming better organized with the reduced shear and better inflow.

Yep, "this" may actually be the day/night of long hours of satellite watching LOL. Aric, got your tub of popcorn by your side (i've got mine lol). It would seem that what doesnt occur during this time frame, would be less apt to occur thereafter.

lol this is like 7 days of late nights for me

[Tireman4]

long range radar showing pretty decent curved band on south and east side. looking pretty far up but definitely becoming better organized with the reduced shear and better inflow.

Yep, "this" may actually be the day/night of long hours of satellite watching LOL. Aric, got your tub of popcorn by your side (i've got mine lol). It would seem that what doesnt occur during this time frame, would be less apt to occur thereafter.

lol this is like 7 days of late nights for me

You live for this man...LOL...you know it...

[Aric Dunn]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?

farther south system ? that would most likely have the opposite affect as the trough would have to come farther down or be stronger to pick it fully up.

[Tropics Guy]

Over the years I've seen plenty of worse looking (sheared) named systems. This (TD 9) Has to be close to TS status based on Sat & Obs, but IMO still fighting some lessened shear, which is preventing it from intensifying.
TG

[chaser1]

When is recon due on station?

leaving in a half hour for td9

plane is in the air I would presume a pressure around 1004 given the current structure and convection. winds might be pretty darn close to TS as well.

I'll see your 1004mb, and raise.... er LOWER it by one. That'll be 1003mb to you! Check, fold, or call? LOL

[N2FSU]

Don't like the models trends further north

I have noticed that in the last 2 runs of the GFS, but you are the first to comment on it. It's a very subtle shift, so I wonder if it's insignificant or the start of a trend? We will find out soon enough I guess.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, "this" may actually be the day/night of long hours of satellite watching LOL. Aric, got your tub of popcorn by your side (i've got mine lol). It would seem that what doesnt occur during this time frame, would be less apt to occur thereafter.

lol this is like 7 days of late nights for me

You live for this man...LOL...you know it...

haha of course. I like the genesis part once its a full fledged hurricane i dont wabble watch.. lol well until its nearing landfall where it makes a huge difference for that inner core.

[tarheelprogrammer]

leaving in a half hour for td9

plane is in the air I would presume a pressure around 1004 given the current structure and convection. winds might be pretty darn close to TS as well.

I'll see your 1004mb, and raise.... er LOWER it by one. That'll be 1003mb to you! Check, fold, or call? LOL

I am going 1001mb.

[N2FSU]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Do you think this is the reason for the subtle shift north of the track in the last 2 GFS runs?

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a coworker of mine who is currently on a cruise on Royal Caribbean's Freedom of the Seas. According to Marinetraffic.com they are currently in the Florida Straights directly south of Key West heading 238 degrees at 18.6 knots. In other words, they are headed right into the heart of the depression. I hope she took here Dramamine with her.

[AutoPenalti]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?

farther south system ? that would most likely have the opposite affect as the trough would have to come farther down or be stronger to pick it fully up.

That's true, what would shift the models east then? A faster trough?

[wxman57]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

It's a toss-up as far as which model is the absolute worst for tropical cyclones - the NAM, NOGAPS, or Canadian. I think the NOGAPS is still the leader there, with the NAM close on its heels. If my forecast is EVER close to the NOGAPS solution then I know the track is 180 degrees off.

Looking at satellite, my initial impression was "whoa!", then I looped it. I can see a couple of swirls rotating around but I don't think anything is under that convection. Recon should clear that up in a couple of hours.

[StormTracker]

Strong Theta-E Ridge now building to its immediate NW. Currently at 363.

What effect would that have on 09L?

Very likely would see a convective ramp up when it tracks into it.

GCANE, do you know if any of the models can process Theta-E Ridge data and incorporate it into their tracks to show what kind of effect it would have on the developing system?

[mph101]

Hurricane Hunter en-route from MacDill AFB, Tampa
I don't know if this link is posted, it's interesting real time flight info

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

[GCANE]

Outflow continues to improve on every frame.
All quadrants pretty much ventilating now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[chaser1]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?

farther south system ? that would most likely have the opposite affect as the trough would have to come farther down or be stronger to pick it fully up.

Yeah, the thought of that trough now being overplayed and much weaker almost screams a possible Elena-esque event??? Fast foreward 48-72hrs with instead of a northeasterly forward motion due to the flow ahead of a sharper trough, perhaps a more NNE or northward slow motion right up to some point prior to landfall where the base of any weak trough pulls up and away. I'd guess we'd see the ridge build back in causing anything from a stall, to perhaps a cyclonic loop, but probably some west to northwest motion. That would all depend on timing and especially the orientation of any rebuilding ridge at that time. That would be the LAST thing you folks in Louisiana or S.E. Texas would want to see.

[jlauderdal]

Hurricane Hunter en-route from MacDill AFB, Tampa
I don't know if this link is posted, it's interesting real time flight info

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

looks like a long mission..hope they are well rested