ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4561 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4562 Postby otterlyspicey » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:04 pm

After these many, MANY days of watching a tremendously sad looking storm, it's hard not to jump the gun the moment it looks "less sad" and be like "Ahhh look she's coming to life quickly!" But I have to keep telling myself if we had never seen the storm before, she would look kinda rough and certainly doesn't have the most ideal atmospheric situations. And maybe excitement would be less than it is. I do love the excitement though lol. Still, it's hard to not make excuses/scenarios (some which are semi-realistic) to see a way this can still become more than a TS/Cat 1. :?: 8-)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4563 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:05 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Based on radar alone this might be a 50mph+ tropical storm when recon gets there

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When is recon due on station?


leaving in a half hour for td9


plane is in the air :) I would presume a pressure around 1004 given the current structure and convection. winds might be pretty darn close to TS as well.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4564 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:06 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:long range radar showing pretty decent curved band on south and east side. looking pretty far up but definitely becoming better organized with the reduced shear and better inflow.


Yep, "this" may actually be the day/night of long hours of satellite watching LOL. Aric, got your tub of popcorn by your side (i've got mine lol). It would seem that what doesnt occur during this time frame, would be less apt to occur thereafter.


lol this is like 7 days of late nights for me :P
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4565 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:long range radar showing pretty decent curved band on south and east side. looking pretty far up but definitely becoming better organized with the reduced shear and better inflow.


Yep, "this" may actually be the day/night of long hours of satellite watching LOL. Aric, got your tub of popcorn by your side (i've got mine lol). It would seem that what doesnt occur during this time frame, would be less apt to occur thereafter.


lol this is like 7 days of late nights for me :P


You live for this man...LOL...you know it...:) :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4566 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:07 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?


farther south system ? that would most likely have the opposite affect as the trough would have to come farther down or be stronger to pick it fully up.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4567 Postby Tropics Guy » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:08 pm

Over the years I've seen plenty of worse looking (sheared) named systems. This (TD 9) Has to be close to TS status based on Sat & Obs, but IMO still fighting some lessened shear, which is preventing it from intensifying.
TG
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4568 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
When is recon due on station?


leaving in a half hour for td9


plane is in the air :) I would presume a pressure around 1004 given the current structure and convection. winds might be pretty darn close to TS as well.


I'll see your 1004mb, and raise.... er LOWER it by one. That'll be 1003mb to you! Check, fold, or call? LOL
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4569 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:09 pm

pcolaman wrote:Don't like the models trends further north :roll:


I have noticed that in the last 2 runs of the GFS, but you are the first to comment on it. It's a very subtle shift, so I wonder if it's insignificant or the start of a trend? We will find out soon enough I guess.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4570 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:10 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Yep, "this" may actually be the day/night of long hours of satellite watching LOL. Aric, got your tub of popcorn by your side (i've got mine lol). It would seem that what doesnt occur during this time frame, would be less apt to occur thereafter.


lol this is like 7 days of late nights for me :P


You live for this man...LOL...you know it...:) :cheesy:


haha of course. I like the genesis part once its a full fledged hurricane i dont wabble watch.. lol well until its nearing landfall where it makes a huge difference for that inner core.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4571 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:11 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
leaving in a half hour for td9


plane is in the air :) I would presume a pressure around 1004 given the current structure and convection. winds might be pretty darn close to TS as well.


I'll see your 1004mb, and raise.... er LOWER it by one. That'll be 1003mb to you! Check, fold, or call? LOL


I am going 1001mb.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4572 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Do you think this is the reason for the subtle shift north of the track in the last 2 GFS runs?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4573 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:11 pm

I have a coworker of mine who is currently on a cruise on Royal Caribbean's Freedom of the Seas. According to Marinetraffic.com they are currently in the Florida Straights directly south of Key West heading 238 degrees at 18.6 knots. In other words, they are headed right into the heart of the depression. I hope she took here Dramamine with her.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4574 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:12 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?


farther south system ? that would most likely have the opposite affect as the trough would have to come farther down or be stronger to pick it fully up.

That's true, what would shift the models east then? A faster trough?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4575 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:12 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.


It's a toss-up as far as which model is the absolute worst for tropical cyclones - the NAM, NOGAPS, or Canadian. I think the NOGAPS is still the leader there, with the NAM close on its heels. If my forecast is EVER close to the NOGAPS solution then I know the track is 180 degrees off.

Looking at satellite, my initial impression was "whoa!", then I looped it. I can see a couple of swirls rotating around but I don't think anything is under that convection. Recon should clear that up in a couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4576 Postby StormTracker » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:14 pm

GCANE wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:
GCANE wrote:Strong Theta-E Ridge now building to its immediate NW. Currently at 363.

What effect would that have on 09L?


Very likely would see a convective ramp up when it tracks into it.

GCANE, do you know if any of the models can process Theta-E Ridge data and incorporate it into their tracks to show what kind of effect it would have on the developing system?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4577 Postby mph101 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:14 pm

Hurricane Hunter en-route from MacDill AFB, Tampa
I don't know if this link is posted, it's interesting real time flight info

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4578 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:16 pm

Outflow continues to improve on every frame.
All quadrants pretty much ventilating now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4579 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

Wouldn't a farther south location shift the models east?


farther south system ? that would most likely have the opposite affect as the trough would have to come farther down or be stronger to pick it fully up.


Yeah, the thought of that trough now being overplayed and much weaker almost screams a possible Elena-esque event??? Fast foreward 48-72hrs with instead of a northeasterly forward motion due to the flow ahead of a sharper trough, perhaps a more NNE or northward slow motion right up to some point prior to landfall where the base of any weak trough pulls up and away. I'd guess we'd see the ridge build back in causing anything from a stall, to perhaps a cyclonic loop, but probably some west to northwest motion. That would all depend on timing and especially the orientation of any rebuilding ridge at that time. That would be the LAST thing you folks in Louisiana or S.E. Texas would want to see.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4580 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:20 pm

mph101 wrote:Hurricane Hunter en-route from MacDill AFB, Tampa
I don't know if this link is posted, it's interesting real time flight info

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43


looks like a long mission..hope they are well rested :cheesy:
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