ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

they just passed through that vort as of right now.. have to wait for next set but likely farther south..

[RL3AO]

Center is somewhere west of the red X. Thats where recon was and they haven't quite found it yet.

[HurriGuy]

Well ECMWF initialization won't even be close from this little bit of info

[HurriGuy]

Bingo

[Alyono]

Center is exposed and the pressure has risen from the evening.

This is not organizing. Very good news indeed. Think the chances of this becoming a hurricane are lower

[tropicwatch]

Found wind shift at 23.600N 86.400W

[HurriGuy]

Found wind shift at 23.600N 86.400W

this has become badly exposed

[SeGaBob]

I don't see how it would be...

[Aric Dunn]

soo 23.3n 86.2w....and not that well defined.. Bet down near 22.5m and 85.5 they will find another vort..

[MississippiWx]

Poorly organized for now, but can't take for granted what a slight decrease in shear will allow to happen.

I'm amazed at how far south and west it keeps moving.

[tropicwatch]

Still considerably southwest of previous position. Break out the oiji boards.

[chaser1]

I can almost make a case for a COC appearing directly over the Westernmost tip of Cuba. Now, it may be surface... it may be mid level, heck it may be a giant toilet in the sky but I'll say this much - it's essentially the only thing I do see spinning!

[HurriGuy]

soo 23.3n 86.2w....and not that well defined.. Bet down near 22.5m and 85.5 they will find another vort..

I am seeing winds from the north on RGB down below 23N....

[Alyono]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

[MississippiWx]

I can almost make a case for a COC appearing directly over the Westernmost tip of Cuba. Now, it may be surface... it may be mid level, heck it may be a giant toilet in the sky but I'll say this much - it's essentially the only thing I do see spinning!

Fairly easy to tell where the center is on RAMMB Visible. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Dean4Storms]

MLC is where all the convection is, can't help but think a new surface low forms down there with the pressure at this center now risen.

[Aric Dunn]

I can almost make a case for a COC appearing directly over the Westernmost tip of Cuba. Now, it may be surface... it may be mid level, heck it may be a giant toilet in the sky but I'll say this much - it's essentially the only thing I do see spinning!

just like earlier its quite likely there is still a vort there.. just have to wait and see.. wind field seems to suggest it.

[RL3AO]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

Might have gotten north of the anti-cyclone again. What a system.

[RL3AO]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

Might have gotten north of the anti-cyclone again. What a system.

[HurriGuy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

12 knots? That cannot be the problem