ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5261 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:33 am

northjaxpro wrote:Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.



I guess being "hit" by the GFS 10 times means you'll get something! :cry:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5262 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:33 am

northjaxpro wrote:Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.


I'll also be chiming in from the Jax area. Should be interesting to see how this area reacts to a Tropical Storm, as compared to Broward County! Not that this should be a large threat to us, just some rain and wind (if it stays weak). Should be fun.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5263 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:35 am

xcool22 wrote:TD9 barely moved imo


yeah very little movement. mostly do to reorganization processes with the center moving with the new convection.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5264 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:38 am

I will be flying into florida for the system. depending on timing I hope to get in just before landfall.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5265 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:38 am

TD 9 just can't get a break from the shear, its NW quadrant continues to be deep convection free with shear and drier mid levels ruling it.
BTW, the disturbance off of TX coast looks interesting this morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5266 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:42 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5267 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:42 am

tigerz3030 wrote:Welcome back NorthJaxPro,

I remember Colin being my first storm since moving here and it was windy and rainy for sure. Lights never went out which was good. However, I feel and see this storm is a little bit bigger and stronger. Am I correct in assuming we will have a few more effects this time and could this storm get to Cat 1 before landfall? Thanks as always!!


Well we could see more effects IF and a.BiG IF, if this system gets stronger than forecasted upon approach to landfall. However, there is a reasonable possibility that this could attain Cat 1 status , so that is why we have to watch this situation closely. The treat for more potential widespread power outages and wind damage would definitely increase across the area if this cyclone comes through here stronger than anticipated.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5268 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:44 am

tolakram wrote:15 frame visible, now that GOES E is fixed they have it on a faster scan. Still doesn't look that organized to me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black


I still see multiple vorts there. One where NHC has it tagged and one southwest barely in convection.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5269 Postby hohnywx » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:45 am

First surge products released by NHC

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/770617408860004352


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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5270 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:48 am

GCANE wrote:Somehow, I got a feeling its going to puke out an outflow boundary


I don't see that hapening this morning, there's some good convergence going on right now, maybe on its far NE quadrant.
Dry air over the BOC is staying there, at least for now, and is not being entrained into the coc.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5271 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:53 am

NDG wrote:
GCANE wrote:Somehow, I got a feeling its going to puke out an outflow boundary


I don't see that hapening this morning, there's some good convergence going on right now, maybe on its far NE quadrant.
Dry air over the BOC is staying there, at least for now, and is not being entrained into the coc.


That and the fact HH's reported intense lightening in the SE quad suggests a stronger storm.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5272 Postby JaxGator » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:56 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.


I'll also be chiming in from the Jax area. Should be interesting to see how this area reacts to a Tropical Storm, as compared to Broward County! Not that this should be a large threat to us, just some rain and wind (if it stays weak). Should be fun.


Yep, northjaxpro, it appears it'll take that track but hopefully it won't be too bad. Posters in Jax (Evil Jermey and tigerz3030 and I) will definitely help with updates and storm reports. It'll be interesting.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5273 Postby BucMan2 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:59 am

With the track taking T9 towards Cedar Key what effects should the Tampa Bay area receive
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5274 Postby JaxGator » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:10 am

The only factor I see the depression/future Hermine using to counter the dry air to some degree is it pulling deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean, which it is doing it looks like.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5275 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:13 am

Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5276 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:16 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5277 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:16 am

Stormcenter wrote:Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html


its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5278 Postby sponger » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:18 am

If this system is not affected by dry air over the next two days, the intensity forecast may have to be nudged up a bit. May allow it to get to hurricane prior to landfall.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5279 Postby sponger » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:21 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html


its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn


Huge blow up in convection. I believe we have a tropical storm now!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5280 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:25 am

I'm probably wrong here but TD Nine looks further west than the NHC has it. It could just be a satellite illusion. :D

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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