ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[centuryv58]

Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.

I guess being "hit" by the GFS 10 times means you'll get something!

[Evil Jeremy]

Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.

I'll also be chiming in from the Jax area. Should be interesting to see how this area reacts to a Tropical Storm, as compared to Broward County! Not that this should be a large threat to us, just some rain and wind (if it stays weak). Should be fun.

[Aric Dunn]

TD9 barely moved imo

yeah very little movement. mostly do to reorganization processes with the center moving with the new convection.

[Aric Dunn]

I will be flying into florida for the system. depending on timing I hope to get in just before landfall.

[NDG]

TD 9 just can't get a break from the shear, its NW quadrant continues to be deep convection free with shear and drier mid levels ruling it.
BTW, the disturbance off of TX coast looks interesting this morning.

[tolakram]

15 frame visible, now that GOES E is fixed they have it on a faster scan. Still doesn't look that organized to me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[northjaxpro]

Welcome back NorthJaxPro,

I remember Colin being my first storm since moving here and it was windy and rainy for sure. Lights never went out which was good. However, I feel and see this storm is a little bit bigger and stronger. Am I correct in assuming we will have a few more effects this time and could this storm get to Cat 1 before landfall? Thanks as always!!

Well we could see more effects IF and a.BiG IF, if this system gets stronger than forecasted upon approach to landfall. However, there is a reasonable possibility that this could attain Cat 1 status , so that is why we have to watch this situation closely. The treat for more potential widespread power outages and wind damage would definitely increase across the area if this cyclone comes through here stronger than anticipated.

[tarheelprogrammer]

15 frame visible, now that GOES E is fixed they have it on a faster scan. Still doesn't look that organized to me.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

I still see multiple vorts there. One where NHC has it tagged and one southwest barely in convection.

[hohnywx]

First surge products released by NHC

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/770617408860004352

[NDG]

Somehow, I got a feeling its going to puke out an outflow boundary

I don't see that hapening this morning, there's some good convergence going on right now, maybe on its far NE quadrant.
Dry air over the BOC is staying there, at least for now, and is not being entrained into the coc.

[ronjon]

Somehow, I got a feeling its going to puke out an outflow boundary

I don't see that hapening this morning, there's some good convergence going on right now, maybe on its far NE quadrant.
Dry air over the BOC is staying there, at least for now, and is not being entrained into the coc.

That and the fact HH's reported intense lightening in the SE quad suggests a stronger storm.

[JaxGator]

Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.

I'll also be chiming in from the Jax area. Should be interesting to see how this area reacts to a Tropical Storm, as compared to Broward County! Not that this should be a large threat to us, just some rain and wind (if it stays weak). Should be fun.

Yep, northjaxpro, it appears it'll take that track but hopefully it won't be too bad. Posters in Jax (Evil Jermey and tigerz3030 and I) will definitely help with updates and storm reports. It'll be interesting.

[BucMan2]

With the track taking T9 towards Cedar Key what effects should the Tampa Bay area receive

[JaxGator]

The only factor I see the depression/future Hermine using to counter the dry air to some degree is it pulling deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean, which it is doing it looks like.

[Stormcenter]

Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/770625443410092032

[jlauderdal]

Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn

[sponger]

If this system is not affected by dry air over the next two days, the intensity forecast may have to be nudged up a bit. May allow it to get to hurricane prior to landfall.

[sponger]

Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn

Huge blow up in convection. I believe we have a tropical storm now!

[Stormcenter]

I'm probably wrong here but TD Nine looks further west than the NHC has it. It could just be a satellite illusion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html