ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[whatacane]

it will make the turn, I mean when have models been bad this late in the game, it will make the turn

it seems to be way futher and south though?

[TropicalSailor]

I can definitely see more of a northward component then yesterday. I think it will strengthen and turn roughly about the same time (later this afternoon). I'd like to see it speed up and get on out of here before the weekend.

[drewschmaltz]

It almost looks like the old center just completely opened up as the sun was coming up. It accelerated to the north very quickly last few frames and then gone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

I saw this exact same thing in the last few frames last night... It looks like it pulls out ahead and vanishes. Obviously either pulls back in, convection covers it, or it's just an eddy. Or I have no idea.

[whatacane]

It almost looks like the old center just completely opened up as the sun was coming up. It accelerated to the north very quickly last few frames and then gone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

I saw this exact same thing in the last few frames last night... It looks like it pulls out ahead and vanishes. Obviously either pulls back in, convection covers it, or it's just an eddy. Or I have no idea.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

At least with this storm we know that we can take rapid intensification off the table. But think a 50 to 60 mph storm is still possible at this point if it's able to hit tropical storm status by tonight.

Don't assume that. Think back to Humberto in 2007 when it was about to move ashore into Galveston. Went from a 45 mph TS to nearly a Cat 2 hurricane in just a few hours.

But I remember Humberto having better conditions to work with as opposed to a system constantly hit with shear

[ronjon]

All this talk about a center and intensity - RECON will answer this afternoon. You can only get so much info from SAT and far away buoys in the GOM.

[JtSmarts]

If this storm never becomes a hurricane it won't be atypical, none of the Hermines have ever strengthened beyond TS strength. (If this does become Hermine).

[TropicalSailor]

NDBC Buoy at 26.007N 85.648W (250nm west of Naples FL) reporting 15.5kt gusting to 19.4kt at roughly 130. 4.9 ft Significant Wave Height at a 6 Sec Period. Water Temp 85.3F. Pressure 29.83in and rising

Lowest water temp we have seen in a few days there. This will be a good obs after it makes the NE Turn.

[tropicwatch]

Center appears to be just on the north side just north of heavy convection.http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=1&numframes=15

[davidiowx]

Center appears to be just on the north side just north of heavy convection.http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=1&numframes=15

That's exactly where I see it as well. Unless there are 2 vorts down there with one further South and West.. but is hard to tell just using satellite.

[HurriGuy]

If y'all are bored,

RECON is on the way to Madeline in the Pacific.

[drewschmaltz]

It almost looks like the old center just completely opened up as the sun was coming up. It accelerated to the north very quickly last few frames and then gone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

I saw this exact same thing in the last few frames last night... It looks like it pulls out ahead and vanishes. Obviously either pulls back in, convection covers it, or it's just an eddy. Or I have no idea.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

Whoa!

[SouthFloridawx]

I still see an somewhat elongated area of low pressure, with multiple vortices.

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[HurriGuy]

FWIW

This is probably the strongest run the GFS has had in awhile

It is also a tad further to the west

[NDG]

The one thing that I remember a day or two ago the NHC mentioning why the GFS & Euro models have not been showing TD 9 to become a hurricane is because of dry air over the central and SW GOM that would keep the storm from intensifying too much once shear picks up from the SW thus getting entrained into the COC. If that does not happen I don't see the shear ahead of it being that strong to keep it from becoming a hurricane if the LLC and MLC become stacked during the next couple of days, IMO.

[HurricaneRyan]

One of these depressions needs to become a TS already. I'm sick of waiting.

[bg1]

One of these depressions needs to become a TS already. I'm sick of waiting.

(sigh) The Atlantic is the only basin I know that can struggle with an invest...

...FOR 12 DAYS!!!

[Slughitter3]

The Weather Channel just passed that the Global Hawk (UAS) flying the system has been recording TS winds for the last hour or so. Anyone know where to find that data to confirm it or not? Thanks!

[stormhunter7]

The one thing that I remember a day or two ago the NHC mentioning why the GFS & Euro models have not been showing TD 9 to become a hurricane is because of dry air over the central and SW GOM that would keep the storm from intensifying too much once shear picks up from the SW thus getting entrained into the COC. If that does not happen I don't see the shear ahead of it being that strong to keep it from becoming a hurricane if the LLC and MLC become stacked during the next couple of days, IMO.

Looking a global hawk data (its now back in Atlantic, just off Miami, 20 miles) i see a lot dry air in the mid levels to the north of system (basically the current forecast path region.) Global hawk did not sample the BOC area, but all of the GOM to Tx and to SE GOM. Looking at the radar data from Hawk, this system is still not vertically stacked.

[hohnywx]

The Weather Channel just passed that the Global Hawk (UAS) flying the system has been recording TS winds for the last hour or so. Anyone know where to find that data to confirm it or not? Thanks!

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