ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6021 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:53 am

I am "almost" convinced that this system has finally consolidated and we finally have Tropical Storm Hermine. Most all of us use the same tools but the one that closes the deal for me is (Mimic-TPW ). Check out how impressive and consolidated it looks on the link I posted. AS for track....I am not at all impressed with the development of the trough. It looks weak to me so far? I would be more worried about a "Hurricane" on the Florida Panhandle, and maybe as far west as Alabama. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6022 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:56 am

1am advisory: "...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO..."
Love the terminology 8-)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6023 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:56 am

hurricanehunter69 wrote:I am "almost" convinced that this system has finally consolidated and we finally have Tropical Storm Hermine. Most all of us use the same tools but the one that closes the deal for me is (Mimic-TPW ). Check out how impressive and consolidated it looks on the link I posted. AS for track....I am not at all impressed with the development of the trough. It looks weak to me so far? I would be more worried about a "Hurricane" on the Florida Panhandle, and maybe as far west as Alabama. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html


A weaker trough usually means a more zonal flow, which a stronger trough would have a sharper tilt. Thus, the weak nature of the trough is why this is forecast to make a fairly hard ENE turn
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6024 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:02 am

I don't think there's any doubt the system looks vastly improved over previous nights. It's big so I would suspect any strengthening would be gradual. I would continue to expect a rather sharp gradient in the heavy rain on the west side due to that dry air but the east and south sides are incredibly juiced.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6025 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:10 am

Alyono wrote:
hurricanehunter69 wrote:I am "almost" convinced that this system has finally consolidated and we finally have Tropical Storm Hermine. Most all of us use the same tools but the one that closes the deal for me is (Mimic-TPW ). Check out how impressive and consolidated it looks on the link I posted. AS for track....I am not at all impressed with the development of the trough. It looks weak to me so far? I would be more worried about a "Hurricane" on the Florida Panhandle, and maybe as far west as Alabama. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html


A weaker trough usually means a more zonal flow, which a stronger trough would have a sharper tilt. Thus, the weak nature of the trough is why this is forecast to make a fairly hard ENE turn

Makes good sense man...cool! Ya know...at the end of the day, I don't care how strong storms get or for "the most part" where they go? I just like to know "why" they got as strong as they got and "why" they went where they went? So again, thanx!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6026 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hammy wrote:
SeGaBob wrote::uarrow: There is no way this is just a 30 mph TD


The planes have been in and out over the last day, and despite it looking better on satellite it's not actually improving much at the surface and based on the last ASCAT pass I don't think tonight is any different.


did you even read the discussion ?


I have indeed--and it was similar to last night only for the plane to arrive later and find that the system was just as disorganized as when the plane last left. Tomorrow will be no different especially with ASCAT showing this is not intensifying in the least. Latest satellite also shows a shrinking area of reds, and the convective burst from less than an hour ago has already collapsed with another line of convection even further away from the center.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6027 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:14 am

Latest SAB fix is up to T3.0.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6028 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:16 am

really starting to remind me of Fay (2008) pre genesis. I was quite frustrated with that one as well as it looked like a strong tropical storm on satellite, and very weak at the surface.

Not entirely sure how a setup like this occurs
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6029 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:24 am

this has got to be as far west as 9 can get. IMHO it should be moving at least N if not with some type of E component at least by noon. Also there is some energy pumping into the GA coast. That shouldnt develop into anything but it's a sign of things to come. Could be a few anxious days ahead. And y'all chill on Alyono.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6030 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:35 am

I have just deleted several posts and sent warnings concerning them.
EVERYONE is welcome to post their opinion concerning the weather on this site as long as it is done in a respectful manner.
EVERYONE is allowed to disagree with ANYONE on this site if it is done in a respectful manner.
The posts I have deleted were not respectful in any way. That is why they were deleted. We have a report button for a reason. Please use it so staff is aware of the "problem". That way we can take a look and address it as it needs to be addressed.
With the site running a t full tilt due to the very active tropics and possible landfalling systems within the next few days staff is being directed to at their discretion delete posts that do not adhere to our rules. This will be done without warning.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6031 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:36 am

Steve wrote:this has got to be as far west as 9 can get. IMHO it should be moving at least N if not with some type of E component at least by noon. Also there is some energy pumping into the GA coast. That shouldnt develop into anything but it's a sign of things to come. Could be a few anxious days ahead. And y'all chill on Alyono.

We've got some good showers moving north along the west coast of florida too. lots of river flood warnings coming out for the usual suspects in west central florida.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6032 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:52 am

These things can and "Do" make "hard" right turns. Check out (on the link I provided) how Gaston comes to a complete stop and makes a hard right turn. However, we can clearly observe how it took a series of "strong" troughs to do the job. We are not observing anything even remotely close to the troughs in the NW Atlantic impinging upon future Hermine. I just don't see the storm making a hard right turn anytime soon. " Soon" being the proverbial word. moreover, I'm actually even having a hard time believing it will make a "right" turn at all....? Outside of rounding the periphery of a ridge. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6033 Postby otowntiger » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:08 am

"really starting to remind me of Fay (2008) pre genesis. I was quite frustrated with that one as well as it looked like a strong tropical storm on satellite, and very weak at the surface."

Faye bright record rain and flooding to much of the peninsula that year. :double:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6034 Postby stormchasr » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:28 am

Looks as though the NNE turn is commencing.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6035 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:32 am

I have been watching the GFS 350K PV forecast and this may get interesting as TD9 gets close to the coast.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... 350PV.anim

It will have some interaction with the ULL to the west for the next 24 hrs but then break away from it.
It looks like then the tropopause will be relatively high which would give it an opportunity for the cyclone to expand vertically.

Here is a closer look at it at +36 hrs
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abe ... sen_63.gif

I will be watching future runs to see if more gray areas develop ahead of it.

Another measure of tropopause height is ozone.

It looks like it will be relatively lower over the GOM in the next couple days indicating a relatively higher level of the tropopause.

http://199.212.19.52/tmp/fn-4-n-de-e-32 ... 160902.gif

This will give TD9 vertical room for it to mantain its vorticity thru all levels.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6036 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:38 am

1C warm core but removed from the CoC with a 1C inversion at 1km.
In all honesty, I thought this would look better with the towers firing so close to the CoC.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6037 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:40 am

may be showing some signs of organization now
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6038 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:43 am

Definitely getting some PV interaction with the ULL to its immediate west. It should break away in the next 24 hrs and give it an opportunity to possibly spin up.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#6039 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:43 am

Alyono, will a stronger storm pull it more east or more northerly?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon Discussion

#6040 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:53 am

Where is recon?
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