ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0ish

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

At indian Shores we had a max wind gust of 78!! Sustained wind has really picked up now. We always get the worse wind when it gets north of us and from the s.e. quad.

That squall was incredible! We went from having not even TS warnings this AM to 78 mph gusts.

[JtSmarts]

Amazing how the eye keeps looking better and better on IR.

[johngaltfla]

If she had one more day at sea, all bets would be off on intensity

[ncbird]

I think people tend to forget or have never experienced SUSTAINED high winds. That was a quick blast and it was kinda scary. For those near the eye of a hurricane it is surreal. You think how does a structure stand the pressure. Even a strong 60MPH sustained storm is frightening let alone a CAT 1. A lot of folks who have never experienced this and hopefully never will...they think these bands are a hurricane...never to experience the fright under a CDO. For those that say this is just a wimpy CAT 1...75-80mph or even 50mph sustained winds are very unnerving if not downright frightening. These bands always remind me of a big monster breathing, like a beast taunting, giving the storm almost a life force of its own...huffing and puffing. Always in awe....and again...prayers to those where this is headed....truly anything other than a strong winter cold front is not fun...

This is why it always aggravates me when, say, a tropical storm is brewing and someone says "oh we get a 40 MPH wind in a summer thunderstorm". Yeah, for about one minute or less with some gusts. Not hours of 40 MPH winds, which is a completely different thing.

With Hurricane Earl on Anguilla in 2010 we had 39 plus for about 36 hours with 75 plus for maybe 8 hours. It's not fun.

They are saying Hermine is heading my way and will still be a TS when it gets to us. I've learned my lesson first hand about the damage sustained TS winds can do. My generator is ready. Anything that can be sent flying is put up. Rest of prep will be done first thing in the morning. Over done maybe, but I have found the prep work allot easier than the cleanup work if you don't.

[chaser1]

I think from a historical perspective, people are blowing the potential and look out of proportion. TWC was hawking the buoy the center just past by and promoted the gusts. Sustained was 50s which is plenty strong enough, but I'm thinking the NHC has been overplaying intensity for at least a few years. I haven't really seen a lot of sustained winds with any recent tropical systems measured on land. Obviously the winds will usually be stronger over water.

This is a cool storm but it's not some vicious Cat 3/4/5. Dry air slots have mixed in, there is no real core and the eye is ragged. It looks like a high end TS/low end H. I'm not downing on it, but people should keep their perspective.

Up to about 4 hours ago I would've fully agreed with you Steve. I have to admit though, with the tightening eye, colder tops, and convections tightly wound around the west side I can finally say that i'm fairly impressed with Hermine. I just got home and havn't had the luxury of keeping up here today but i'm curious as to what the highest gusts recorded by recon were (well, extrapolated of course). With the little time remaining yet with present appearance taken into account, I would frankly be surprised if the winds were not pushing 90mph by landfall.

[ZX12R]

Does that tiny eye suggest very strong destructive winds with it, but mostly localized to where it exactly comes ashore?

[tropicwatch]

Anybody got a nice detailed map of the panhandle coastline so we can tell where these locations are?

Well that little strip of land out in the gulf the northern eyewall is approaching is St. George Island.

[chaser1]

At indian Shores we had a max wind gust of 78!! Sustained wind has really picked up now. We always get the worse wind when it gets north of us and from the s.e. quad.

That squall was incredible! We went from having not even TS warnings this AM to 78 mph gusts.

Isnt that insane?? LOL You would think that some of those winds would've worked their way east a little, a bit earlier in the day

[Nate-Gillson]

If she had one more day at sea, all bets would be off on intensity

Yeah, possibly would have pulled a Wilma...

[JaxGator]

It's true it would be more than it is now with one more day, but it still over water now too and it looks stunning. Hurricanes that strengthen up to landfall are a bad mix.

[TPAcane]

Is there a possibility this baroclinic enhancement to its NE may cause unexpected greater intensification? This was a fear as it got close to the coast...

[JPmia]

I can't find any live working streaming local Tallahassee news.. anyone have some links?

[chaser1]

Does that tiny eye suggest very strong destructive winds with it, but mostly localized to where it exactly comes ashore?

Exactly! Strongest winds are located within the eye wall and most typically right at the point of landfall, but also to the right of center as well.

[psyclone]

Our winds outside of squalls have increased markedly. the next band is going to put more people in the dark I'm afraid.

[JaxGator]

Is there a possibility this baroclinic enhancement to its NE may cause unexpected greater intensification? This was a fear as it got close to the coast...

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx · 1m1 minute ago

As feared, southwesterly wind shear actually aiding in outflow, increasing ventilation and strengthening. #Hermine

[JKingTampa]

Our winds outside of squalls have increased markedly. the next band is going to put more people in the dark I'm afraid.

Our winds here have increased very much over just the last 45 minutes or so. Right now I'm right next to I-275.

[NDG]

Hermine's eye is looking impressive on enhanced satellite.

http://tropicwatch.info/hermineeye09012230.jpg

Eye appears to be tightening up on radar as well.. WOW... that is a great IR sat photo of a strengthening hurricane!

Compare that to the HWRF Simulated IR from 0z.

http://i64.tinypic.com/29mvek9.png

And people were laughing at the HWRF just a couple of days ago.

[ronjon]

Our winds outside of squalls have increased markedly. the next band is going to put more people in the dark I'm afraid.

Watching that next band - looks stronger and longer lasting. Wxman57 said earlier he thought Hermine could top out at 100 mph at landfall.

[alan1961]

really tightened up, cat 2 before landfall?