ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like Hermine has slowed and maybe wobbling more east?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[terstorm1012]

Is it harder for a post-tropical storm to go back to being a tropical storm again than a wave/disturbance to become a TD? (in the same environment)

If the conditions are right it can transition quickly (like 6-12 hours) I think. Conditions look like they might just be right at some point in the next couple days.
I'm kind of surprised at how quiet this board is too although it is a holiday weekend.
it's sunny where I am but I can see Hermine's high clouds to the south and east. They're spreading in my direction. I'm far inland and we aren't expected to get much weather out of this though.

[funster]

Looks to me like Hermine has slowed and maybe wobbling more east?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

It does look slower and wobbly. I thought it wasn't supposed to slow down and meander until tomorrow?

[OuterBanker]

Quite a surprise here. Really nasty here last night. Torrential rains, high winds. This am dead calm and the sun came out. Now really nasty again. Nags Head town hall had a gust of 66 around 12:20 pm. Thought it was supposed to move away.

[weathaguyry]

Here in NY I am making some final preparations, it is cloudy, breezy, quite chilly, and very ominous looking outside...

[Alyono]

the threat to the East coast may be increasing as the models are shifting closer to the coast.

As a worst case, perhaps the December 1992 Nor'Easter in terms of impacts

[OBXterra]

All bridges to the Outer Banks (Dare County, NC) have now been closed due to the high winds. There have been several accidents, overturned tractor trailers.

[psyclone]

I think the reduction in board posts is largely a function of the geographic distribution of posters. This is a heavily tropical board with US members concentrated in the south. My personal philosophy is to post less when a storm isn't threatening me as I like to make way for people in the storm or in the storm's path (along with our mets) to do the lions share of the posting but that doesn't mean I'm not interested. I'm just usually in the background not even logged in. Best of luck to everyone in the path.

[Airboy]

From twitter:
Governor Christie ‏
"I’ve declared a state of emergency for Ocean, Atlantic & Cape May Counties in preparation for Tropical Storm #Hermine"

[Happy Pelican]

From twitter:
Governor Christie ‏
"I’ve declared a state of emergency for Ocean, Atlantic & Cape May Counties in preparation for Tropical Storm #Hermine"

Nice to know he checked in. I'll be reporting directly from the NJ barrier island throughout the storm. We're ready, my house is lifted (we were substantially damaged from Sandy and elevated 11ft). I'm praying some of,the tourists start to leave. The towns are packed and the NHC is saying massive inundation.

[OuterBanker]

A question for the mets.

What the heck is going on.

I can see that all the convection and precipation is going north as anticipated.

But, the llc has remained stalled just off our coast.

10 am this morning here still winds and sun.

11:15 winds returned with a vengence. Have been steady in the 40's with gusts in the low 70's.

Why are the winds so high with an exposed llc?

[gatorcane]

Looks to still be heading slowly due east looking at the floater. Don't see that any model was showing this

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[lilac]

the threat to the East coast may be increasing as the models are shifting closer to the coast.

As a worst case, perhaps the December 1992 Nor'Easter in terms of impacts

Well... at least it would be minus the snowfall.

[Jimsot]

Looks to still be heading slowly due east looking at the floater. Don't see that any model was showing this

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

The rain shield seems to be moving away from the coast from the Chincoteague, VA radar. There is NOTHING even remotely close to NJ yet. Keep going East.

[terstorm1012]

the threat to the East coast may be increasing as the models are shifting closer to the coast.

As a worst case, perhaps the December 1992 Nor'Easter in terms of impacts

Well... at least it would be minus the snowfall.

if i remember right there wasn't much snow with that one. that storm was pretty warm.
I was thinking this was more Ash Wednesday 1962 in terms of duration and impact.

[NJWxHurricane]

The center keeps going E/SE.. probably good news for us.

[otterlyspicey]

The center keeps going E/SE.. probably good news for us.

Yup very. Further east it goes before the turn means the further east it will be after the turn. Obviously still beach erosion and surge issues. But maybe, just maybe the wind and rain scenario will look less extreme.

[weathaguyry]

All of Nassau County got a call from our county executive saying that the flooding would be similar to Irene for the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday, water covered our whole town in Irene and the main businesses had water in them

[AdamFirst]

I'm not seeing a southerly component of movement...E/ENE movement sure but definitely not southerly...

[wxman57]

I'm measuring Hermine's movement on my workstation. Between 1415Z and 2015Z:

3hr movement (1415Z-1715Z): 085 degrees / 32nm (10.7kts toward the east
3hr movement (1715Z-2015Z): 68.5 degrees / 58nm (19.3kts toward the ENE)

6hr movement (1415Z-2015Z): 074 degrees / 90nm (15kts toward the east)