ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9221 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 11:56 am

Looks to me like Hermine has slowed and maybe wobbling more east?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9222 Postby terstorm1012 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 11:58 am

Airboy wrote:Is it harder for a post-tropical storm to go back to being a tropical storm again than a wave/disturbance to become a TD? (in the same environment)


If the conditions are right it can transition quickly (like 6-12 hours) I think. Conditions look like they might just be right at some point in the next couple days.
I'm kind of surprised at how quiet this board is too although it is a holiday weekend.
it's sunny where I am but I can see Hermine's high clouds to the south and east. They're spreading in my direction. I'm far inland and we aren't expected to get much weather out of this though.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9223 Postby funster » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks to me like Hermine has slowed and maybe wobbling more east?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


It does look slower and wobbly. I thought it wasn't supposed to slow down and meander until tomorrow? :double:
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9224 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:11 pm

Quite a surprise here. Really nasty here last night. Torrential rains, high winds. This am dead calm and the sun came out. Now really nasty again. Nags Head town hall had a gust of 66 around 12:20 pm. Thought it was supposed to move away.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9225 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:11 pm

Here in NY I am making some final preparations, it is cloudy, breezy, quite chilly, and very ominous looking outside...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9226 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:24 pm

the threat to the East coast may be increasing as the models are shifting closer to the coast.

As a worst case, perhaps the December 1992 Nor'Easter in terms of impacts
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9227 Postby OBXterra » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:27 pm

All bridges to the Outer Banks (Dare County, NC) have now been closed due to the high winds. There have been several accidents, overturned tractor trailers.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9228 Postby psyclone » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:40 pm

I think the reduction in board posts is largely a function of the geographic distribution of posters. This is a heavily tropical board with US members concentrated in the south. My personal philosophy is to post less when a storm isn't threatening me as I like to make way for people in the storm or in the storm's path (along with our mets) to do the lions share of the posting but that doesn't mean I'm not interested. I'm just usually in the background not even logged in. Best of luck to everyone in the path.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9229 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:43 pm

From twitter:
Governor Christie ‏
"I’ve declared a state of emergency for Ocean, Atlantic & Cape May Counties in preparation for Tropical Storm #Hermine"
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9230 Postby Happy Pelican » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:14 pm

Airboy wrote:From twitter:
Governor Christie ‏
"I’ve declared a state of emergency for Ocean, Atlantic & Cape May Counties in preparation for Tropical Storm #Hermine"


Nice to know he checked in. I'll be reporting directly from the NJ barrier island throughout the storm. We're ready, my house is lifted (we were substantially damaged from Sandy and elevated 11ft). I'm praying some of,the tourists start to leave. The towns are packed and the NHC is saying massive inundation.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9231 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:21 pm

A question for the mets.

What the heck is going on.

I can see that all the convection and precipation is going north as anticipated.

But, the llc has remained stalled just off our coast.

10 am this morning here still winds and sun.

11:15 winds returned with a vengence. Have been steady in the 40's with gusts in the low 70's.

Why are the winds so high with an exposed llc?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9232 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:31 pm

Looks to still be heading slowly due east looking at the floater. Don't see that any model was showing this

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9233 Postby lilac » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:41 pm

Alyono wrote:the threat to the East coast may be increasing as the models are shifting closer to the coast.

As a worst case, perhaps the December 1992 Nor'Easter in terms of impacts


Well... at least it would be minus the snowfall.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9234 Postby Jimsot » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks to still be heading slowly due east looking at the floater. Don't see that any model was showing this

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


The rain shield seems to be moving away from the coast from the Chincoteague, VA radar. There is NOTHING even remotely close to NJ yet. Keep going East.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9235 Postby terstorm1012 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:50 pm

lilac wrote:
Alyono wrote:the threat to the East coast may be increasing as the models are shifting closer to the coast.

As a worst case, perhaps the December 1992 Nor'Easter in terms of impacts


Well... at least it would be minus the snowfall.


if i remember right there wasn't much snow with that one. that storm was pretty warm.
I was thinking this was more Ash Wednesday 1962 in terms of duration and impact.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9236 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:53 pm

The center keeps going E/SE.. probably good news for us.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9237 Postby otterlyspicey » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:19 pm

NJWxHurricane wrote:The center keeps going E/SE.. probably good news for us.


Yup very. Further east it goes before the turn means the further east it will be after the turn. Obviously still beach erosion and surge issues. But maybe, just maybe the wind and rain scenario will look less extreme. :?:
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9238 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:47 pm

All of Nassau County got a call from our county executive saying that the flooding would be similar to Irene for the high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday, water covered our whole town in Irene and the main businesses had water in them :double:
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9239 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:52 pm

I'm not seeing a southerly component of movement...E/ENE movement sure but definitely not southerly...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9240 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:56 pm

I'm measuring Hermine's movement on my workstation. Between 1415Z and 2015Z:

3hr movement (1415Z-1715Z): 085 degrees / 32nm (10.7kts toward the east
3hr movement (1715Z-2015Z): 68.5 degrees / 58nm (19.3kts toward the ENE)

6hr movement (1415Z-2015Z): 074 degrees / 90nm (15kts toward the east)
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