ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Im not disagreeing. I'm just not writing anything off on this side of the basin this year til inland or dissipated. Reasonable axis with strong winds and some turning, but moving pretty fast across. I think 10/35% seems more reasonable than 10/20. But it's still probably below average chances for development.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Very strong showers are abatting on Guadeloupe while our Pro Mets have back off the orange alert to yellow alert.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
FLASH FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT
TAPA
BULLETIN
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
10:12 AM ECT MON, SEP 5, 2016
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, AND ST. KITTS AND NEVIS UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS AFFECTING THE AREA. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS, CREEKS, LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD AGAING RISING FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY VEHICLE. NOTE, JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS, AND IF IN DOUBT, MAKE THE SMART CHOICE, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
ALREADY, UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN SOME PLACES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND ANOTHER INCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. PLEASE CALL 463-4638 OR STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS.
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
TAPA
BULLETIN
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
10:12 AM ECT MON, SEP 5, 2016
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, AND ST. KITTS AND NEVIS UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS AFFECTING THE AREA. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS, CREEKS, LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD AGAING RISING FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY VEHICLE. NOTE, JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS, AND IF IN DOUBT, MAKE THE SMART CHOICE, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
ALREADY, UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN SOME PLACES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND ANOTHER INCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. PLEASE CALL 463-4638 OR STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS.
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1145 UTC 15.2N 65.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/0545 UTC 17.1N 62.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/1145 UTC 15.2N 65.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/0545 UTC 17.1N 62.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Headed towards the north part of the Caribbean where sheared systems tend to survive. Not much to write about but still alive in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Yeah, I am on the "it's still alive" wagon too... still has convection firing, looks to be moving to slightly north of due west overall... 

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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Heavy dowpours are spreading copiously here in Guadeloupe. The active tail of 92L continues to bring nice amount of water. Be on your guard all those who live in the Leewards. Stay safe and dry!
Gustywind
Gustywind

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
yes, we are getting heavy downpours here too in SXM, Gusty
latest observations from the airport; Heavy rain showers, Winds SE 20 MPH, gusting to 33
we are under a flash flood advsory
latest observations from the airport; Heavy rain showers, Winds SE 20 MPH, gusting to 33
we are under a flash flood advsory
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Too many hurricanes to remember
- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
msbee wrote:yes, we are getting heavy downpours here too in SXM, Gusty
latest observations from the airport; Heavy rain showers, Winds SE 20 MPH, gusting to 33
we are under a flash flood advsory
Thanks Barbara! Be safe and dry and BE vigilant! I can tell you that we have already small but NUMEROUS localized floodings.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
This looks better to me than 99L did in this general vicinity over a week ago. I think it is a worthy invest. No models show it developing that I can find. But, I am not impressed with the models track record on genesis lately. Direction of movement seems much more WNW today vs west movement we observed previously.
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Numerous lighthings are now coming in my way. Thunder is rumbling nicely too. Strong showers are spreading copiously.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Impressive lightings are making the show, thunder is very very loud! The soil is saturated in the garden...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
stay safe Gusty. Keep that blanket handy. No thunder or lightning here..just rain
latest obs from SXM airport at 1700 UTC
light rain, SW wind 17 MPH
latest obs from SXM airport at 1700 UTC
light rain, SW wind 17 MPH
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Too many hurricanes to remember
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:Impressive lightings are making the show, thunder is very very loud! The soil is saturated in the garden...
Yeah, from the following IR satellite loop, I can see why that is:

Looks like Puerto Rico is in for some heavy duty rain soon too!

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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
msbee wrote:stay safe Gusty. Keep that blanket handy. No thunder or lightning here..just rain
latest obs from SXM airport at 1700 UTC
light rain, SW wind 17 MPH
Waouw


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Emmett_Brown wrote:This looks better to me than 99L did in this general vicinity over a week ago. I think it is a worthy invest. No models show it developing that I can find. But, I am not impressed with the models track record on genesis lately. Direction of movement seems much more WNW today vs west movement we observed previously.
I do not understand why when a wave struggles for a few hours people just write if off.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
abajan wrote:Gustywind wrote:Impressive lightings are making the show, thunder is very very loud! The soil is saturated in the garden...
Yeah, from the following IR satellite loop, I can see why that is:
Looks like Puerto Rico is in for some heavy duty rain soon too!
Absolutely Abajan, you're right on this one! We've experienced numerous tstorms with heavy showers here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Emmett_Brown wrote:This looks better to me than 99L did in this general vicinity over a week ago. I think it is a worthy invest. No models show it developing that I can find. But, I am not impressed with the models track record on genesis lately. Direction of movement seems much more WNW today vs west movement we observed previously.
I do not understand why when a wave struggles for a few hours people just write if off.
Welcome to the 20-teens. People want immediacy and new and they want it now.
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