ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Steve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#401 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:45 am

Im not disagreeing. I'm just not writing anything off on this side of the basin this year til inland or dissipated. Reasonable axis with strong winds and some turning, but moving pretty fast across. I think 10/35% seems more reasonable than 10/20. But it's still probably below average chances for development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#402 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:09 am

Very strong showers are abatting on Guadeloupe while our Pro Mets have back off the orange alert to yellow alert.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#403 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:21 am

FLASH FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT

TAPA
BULLETIN
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
10:12 AM ECT MON, SEP 5, 2016


ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, AND ST. KITTS AND NEVIS UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS AFFECTING THE AREA. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS, CREEKS, LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD AGAING RISING FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY VEHICLE. NOTE, JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS, AND IF IN DOUBT, MAKE THE SMART CHOICE, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

ALREADY, UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN SOME PLACES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND ANOTHER INCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. PLEASE CALL 463-4638 OR STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#404 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:33 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1145 UTC 15.2N 65.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/0545 UTC 17.1N 62.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#405 Postby Agua » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:44 am

DIE 92L DIE!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#406 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:45 am

Headed towards the north part of the Caribbean where sheared systems tend to survive. Not much to write about but still alive in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#407 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:45 am

Agua wrote:DIE 92L DIE!!

it invest keep living
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#408 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:54 am

Yeah, I am on the "it's still alive" wagon too... still has convection firing, looks to be moving to slightly north of due west overall... 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#409 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:55 am

Heavy dowpours are spreading copiously here in Guadeloupe. The active tail of 92L continues to bring nice amount of water. Be on your guard all those who live in the Leewards. Stay safe and dry!
Gustywind :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#410 Postby msbee » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:01 pm

yes, we are getting heavy downpours here too in SXM, Gusty
latest observations from the airport; Heavy rain showers, Winds SE 20 MPH, gusting to 33
we are under a flash flood advsory
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#411 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:03 pm

msbee wrote:yes, we are getting heavy downpours here too in SXM, Gusty
latest observations from the airport; Heavy rain showers, Winds SE 20 MPH, gusting to 33
we are under a flash flood advsory

Thanks Barbara! Be safe and dry and BE vigilant! I can tell you that we have already small but NUMEROUS localized floodings.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#412 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:10 pm

This looks better to me than 99L did in this general vicinity over a week ago. I think it is a worthy invest. No models show it developing that I can find. But, I am not impressed with the models track record on genesis lately. Direction of movement seems much more WNW today vs west movement we observed previously.
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#413 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:13 pm

Numerous lighthings are now coming in my way. Thunder is rumbling nicely too. Strong showers are spreading copiously.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#414 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:21 pm

Impressive lightings are making the show, thunder is very very loud! The soil is saturated in the garden...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#415 Postby msbee » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:32 pm

stay safe Gusty. Keep that blanket handy. No thunder or lightning here..just rain
latest obs from SXM airport at 1700 UTC
light rain, SW wind 17 MPH
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#416 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:37 pm

Gustywind wrote:Impressive lightings are making the show, thunder is very very loud! The soil is saturated in the garden...

Yeah, from the following IR satellite loop, I can see why that is:

Image

Looks like Puerto Rico is in for some heavy duty rain soon too! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#417 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:59 pm

msbee wrote:stay safe Gusty. Keep that blanket handy. No thunder or lightning here..just rain
latest obs from SXM airport at 1700 UTC
light rain, SW wind 17 MPH

Waouw :eek: Barbara, that was an intense 30 minutes! Lightnings were dancing salsa :eek: rain rain rain numerous thunderstorms. Hopefully we have a rest since 10 minutes. 92L is not a kind pupy i can tell you that!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#418 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:05 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:This looks better to me than 99L did in this general vicinity over a week ago. I think it is a worthy invest. No models show it developing that I can find. But, I am not impressed with the models track record on genesis lately. Direction of movement seems much more WNW today vs west movement we observed previously.

I do not understand why when a wave struggles for a few hours people just write if off.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#419 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:08 pm

abajan wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Impressive lightings are making the show, thunder is very very loud! The soil is saturated in the garden...

Yeah, from the following IR satellite loop, I can see why that is:

Image

Looks like Puerto Rico is in for some heavy duty rain soon too! :eek:

Absolutely Abajan, you're right on this one! We've experienced numerous tstorms with heavy showers here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#420 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:09 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:This looks better to me than 99L did in this general vicinity over a week ago. I think it is a worthy invest. No models show it developing that I can find. But, I am not impressed with the models track record on genesis lately. Direction of movement seems much more WNW today vs west movement we observed previously.

I do not understand why when a wave struggles for a few hours people just write if off.


Welcome to the 20-teens. People want immediacy and new and they want it now.
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