ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

Rain has picked up and had a gust of 19 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

its passing jupiter now.. still looking like stuart to vero beach.

[floridasun78]

some storm off south fl and one storm over west broward no rain by my home yet

[chaser1]

Well, count me in the "not looking like a T.D." camp. I'm just not seeing enough evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. That these eyes can tell, none of the various satellite enhancements would lead me to think there's any westerly inflow. I think this still appears to primarily be a north/south open trough. I'd be curious as well to know what the recent and current surface obs are for Bimini.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, count me in the "not looking like a T.D." camp. I'm just not seeing enough evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. That these eyes can tell, none of the various satellite enhancements would lead me to think there's any westerly inflow. I think this still appears to primarily be a north/south open trough. I'd be curious as well to know what the recent and current surface obs are for Bimini.

its not satellite you need.. its the surface obs. plenty of west and wsw winds..

[Aric Dunn]

just ese to East od Stuart but about 2 miles or so . will be inland in the next 2 hours unless fresh convection forms to the east and pulls it a little... nonetheless looks like just north of Stuart to for pierce. not likely to make it to vero beach.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty straight forward...

just offshore.

[Aric Dunn]

will be between Stuart and Fort Pierce.

by all definitions its a TD. but regardless of designation. same effects. just screws up the statistics..

[Aric Dunn]

in Stuart. wind has switched from north to West. LLC passing just to the ENE heading towards port saint lucie and fort pierce.

Max. Min.
13 01:15 W 5 NA Mostly Cloudy BKN018 BKN042 81 77 89% NA 88 29.91 NA
13 00:55 N 3 NA NA NA 81 77 89% NA 88 29.92 NA

[Aric Dunn]

I know no one here is paying attention.. but its still a lot to gain from watching.. genesis is always unique ..

hour or so away from landfall.. close surface circ persistent convection i.e a TD.

[Aric Dunn]

now due east of Fort pierce. made it farther north than I thought its still paralleling the coast somewhat.. could actually come in at vero beach.. then scrape along the coast to Sebastian

[LarryWx]

Thanks, Aric for the interesting updates! I find somewhat "under the radar" tropical systems like these, even if not officially designated a TC, fascinating. My feeling (per my posts over the last couple of days based on visible satellite loops) is that this has likely had a LLC for several days though convection wasn't then organized and persistent enough for a TD.

This is just what the doc ordered for E FL, a wet and weak tropical system. The model consensus got it right with the 850 vorticity/moisture coming to FL about now. Kudos. Of course, the CMC bombed (like usual when it is out on its own with a stronger tropical system) due to the good number of runs that gave somewhere in the the SE US a TS+.
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.

Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located near West Palm Beach, Florida. The low is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extends
from the northwestern Bahamas to the southeastern coast of Florida.
Significant development of this system is unlikely since the low is
expected to move inland over the central and northern portions of
the Florida peninsula through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to continue over the northwestern Bahamas
this morning, and spread over portions of the Florida peninsula
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Orlando]

I'm here and paying attention, however I just don't see this one causing Orlando trouble except for a few inches of rain. My arthritis pains are minimal at the present time.

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks, Aric for the interesting updates! I find somewhat "under the radar" tropical systems like these, even if not officially designated a TC, fascinating. My feeling (per my posts over the last couple of days based on visible satellite loops) is that this has likely had a LLC for several days though convection wasn't then organized and persistent enough for a TD.

This is just what the doc ordered for E FL, a wet and weak tropical system. The model consensus got it right with the 850 vorticity/moisture coming to FL about now. Kudos. Of course, the CMC bombed (like usual when it is out on its own with a stronger tropical system) due to the good number of runs that gave somewhere in the the SE US a TS+.
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.

Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located near West Palm Beach, Florida. The low is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extends
from the northwestern Bahamas to the southeastern coast of Florida.
Significant development of this system is unlikely since the low is
expected to move inland over the central and northern portions of
the Florida peninsula through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to continue over the northwestern Bahamas
this morning, and spread over portions of the Florida peninsula
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

yeah its all fascinating . .. but did they really say west palm beach.. lol so far off.. come on now.. its making landfall now between fort pierce and vero beach... closer to Fort pierce from the last few frames..

[AJC3]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=blog

[Aric Dunn]

I'm here and paying attention, however I just don't see this one causing Orlando trouble except for a few inches of rain. My arthritis pains are minimal at the present time.

yeah nothing but rain. but its still science and considering the path and uncertainty.. let a lone the seasonal statistics. its rather sad.... same thing with Ian.. it was clearly a tropical cyclone 2 days ago.. maybe one day accuracy will prevail..

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=blog

well at least you didn't put it at west palm...

[Aric Dunn]

30 min or less to landfall..

[Orlando]

Science, yes, and very fascinating to watch these things evolve.

[Aric Dunn]

landfall.. of the "tropical low"/TD/ warm core/ un-defined/ sheared system at Indrio florida.. roughly 3am EST.. lol