ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 174
- Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:11 am
- Location: Central Florida
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Rain has picked up and had a gust of 19 mph.
Last edited by rickybobby on Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
its passing jupiter now.. still looking like stuart to vero beach.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
some storm off south fl and one storm over west broward no rain by my home yet
1 likes
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Well, count me in the "not looking like a T.D." camp. I'm just not seeing enough evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. That these eyes can tell, none of the various satellite enhancements would lead me to think there's any westerly inflow. I think this still appears to primarily be a north/south open trough. I'd be curious as well to know what the recent and current surface obs are for Bimini.
1 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:Well, count me in the "not looking like a T.D." camp. I'm just not seeing enough evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. That these eyes can tell, none of the various satellite enhancements would lead me to think there's any westerly inflow. I think this still appears to primarily be a north/south open trough. I'd be curious as well to know what the recent and current surface obs are for Bimini.
its not satellite you need.. its the surface obs. plenty of west and wsw winds..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
just ese to East od Stuart but about 2 miles or so . will be inland in the next 2 hours unless fresh convection forms to the east and pulls it a little... nonetheless looks like just north of Stuart to for pierce. not likely to make it to vero beach.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
pretty straight forward...
just offshore.

just offshore.

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
will be between Stuart and Fort Pierce.
by all definitions its a TD. but regardless of designation. same effects. just screws up the statistics..

by all definitions its a TD. but regardless of designation. same effects. just screws up the statistics..

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
in Stuart. wind has switched from north to West. LLC passing just to the ENE heading towards port saint lucie and fort pierce.
Max. Min.
13 01:15 W 5 NA Mostly Cloudy BKN018 BKN042 81 77 89% NA 88 29.91 NA
13 00:55 N 3 NA NA NA 81 77 89% NA 88 29.92 NA
Max. Min.
13 01:15 W 5 NA Mostly Cloudy BKN018 BKN042 81 77 89% NA 88 29.91 NA
13 00:55 N 3 NA NA NA 81 77 89% NA 88 29.92 NA
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
I know no one here is paying attention.. but its still a lot to gain from watching.. genesis is always unique ..
hour or so away from landfall.. close surface circ persistent convection i.e a TD.

hour or so away from landfall.. close surface circ persistent convection i.e a TD.

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
now due east of Fort pierce. made it farther north than I thought its still paralleling the coast somewhat.. could actually come in at vero beach.. then scrape along the coast to Sebastian
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Thanks, Aric for the interesting updates! I find somewhat "under the radar" tropical systems like these, even if not officially designated a TC, fascinating. My feeling (per my posts over the last couple of days based on visible satellite loops) is that this has likely had a LLC for several days though convection wasn't then organized and persistent enough for a TD.
This is just what the doc ordered for E FL, a wet and weak tropical system. The model consensus got it right with the 850 vorticity/moisture coming to FL about now. Kudos. Of course, the CMC bombed (like usual when it is out on its own with a stronger tropical system) due to the good number of runs that gave somewhere in the the SE US a TS+.
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.
Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located near West Palm Beach, Florida. The low is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extends
from the northwestern Bahamas to the southeastern coast of Florida.
Significant development of this system is unlikely since the low is
expected to move inland over the central and northern portions of
the Florida peninsula through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to continue over the northwestern Bahamas
this morning, and spread over portions of the Florida peninsula
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
This is just what the doc ordered for E FL, a wet and weak tropical system. The model consensus got it right with the 850 vorticity/moisture coming to FL about now. Kudos. Of course, the CMC bombed (like usual when it is out on its own with a stronger tropical system) due to the good number of runs that gave somewhere in the the SE US a TS+.
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.
Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located near West Palm Beach, Florida. The low is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extends
from the northwestern Bahamas to the southeastern coast of Florida.
Significant development of this system is unlikely since the low is
expected to move inland over the central and northern portions of
the Florida peninsula through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to continue over the northwestern Bahamas
this morning, and spread over portions of the Florida peninsula
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
I'm here and paying attention, however I just don't see this one causing Orlando trouble except for a few inches of rain. My arthritis pains are minimal at the present time.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Thanks, Aric for the interesting updates! I find somewhat "under the radar" tropical systems like these, even if not officially designated a TC, fascinating. My feeling (per my posts over the last couple of days based on visible satellite loops) is that this has likely had a LLC for several days though convection wasn't then organized and persistent enough for a TD.
This is just what the doc ordered for E FL, a wet and weak tropical system. The model consensus got it right with the 850 vorticity/moisture coming to FL about now. Kudos. Of course, the CMC bombed (like usual when it is out on its own with a stronger tropical system) due to the good number of runs that gave somewhere in the the SE US a TS+.
------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.
Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located near West Palm Beach, Florida. The low is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extends
from the northwestern Bahamas to the southeastern coast of Florida.
Significant development of this system is unlikely since the low is
expected to move inland over the central and northern portions of
the Florida peninsula through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to continue over the northwestern Bahamas
this morning, and spread over portions of the Florida peninsula
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
yeah its all fascinating . .. but did they really say west palm beach.. lol so far off.. come on now.. its making landfall now between fort pierce and vero beach... closer to Fort pierce from the last few frames..

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Orlando wrote:I'm here and paying attention, however I just don't see this one causing Orlando trouble except for a few inches of rain. My arthritis pains are minimal at the present time.
yeah nothing but rain. but its still science and considering the path and uncertainty.. let a lone the seasonal statistics. its rather sad.... same thing with Ian.. it was clearly a tropical cyclone 2 days ago.. maybe one day accuracy will prevail..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
AJC3 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=blog
well at least you didn't put it at west palm...

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
30 min or less to landfall.. 

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Science, yes, and very fascinating to watch these things evolve.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
landfall.. of the "tropical low"/TD/ warm core/ un-defined/ sheared system at Indrio florida.. roughly 3am EST.. lol
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest