Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#141 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:11 pm

Yep out through 126 hours vort is more defined than 12Z. Still shows a very low latitude track
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#142 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:23 pm

Ut oh. Vort is much stronger and more north than 12Z. This could end up a big storm in the Caribbean on this run. Out through 168 hours so far.

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#143 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:26 pm

Already looks like a developed tropical cyclone approaching the southern Lesser Antilles @168hrs.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#144 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Ut oh. Vort is much stronger and much more north than 12Z. This could end up a big storm in the Caribbean on this run. Out through 156 hours so far


even looks like it has a tropical cyclone before the caribbean, that could be really ugly farther west. I'm starting to think that maybe this will be the big one this year

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#145 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:31 pm

500mb steering before truncation. That big weakness over the Central Atlantic is what causes it to miss South America and gain some latitude. But the system is so far south so it can't recurve there.

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#146 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:33 pm

yes but that big ridge west of it will make it stay south of Hispaniola and maybe Cuba which would be awful in the GOM if it were to avoid those islands

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#147 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:35 pm

Heading NW at 210 hours in the Eastern Caribbean. Might it hit the weakness? Luis might be heading for Puerto Rico?
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#148 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:39 pm

slows this down significantly and turns it more northward, looks like PR or the DR this run
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#149 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:41 pm

Wow pretty amazing that even though this wave is so far south it still hits a massive weakness which may recurve it. Lets see how the run ends.

240 hours heading NW

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#150 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:50 pm

we have a Marilyn 1995 type track this run
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#151 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:50 pm

Up and out - GFS recurves north of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#152 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:52 pm

Late hour Windshield wiper modeling
in full effect.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#153 Postby blp » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:55 pm

Can't wait to see the ensembles on this run. Someshing tells me this is an outlier run.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#154 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:57 pm

I would wait until Saturday or Sunday before i give any definitive forecast because the models are going to be all over the place in the Caribbean

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#155 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:59 pm

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#156 Postby hcane27 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:06 pm

As the saying goes ... "Hide and Watch" ... my early money is on a Hispaniola slam , then out to sea , southeast of Bermuda ..... if it survives the "slam"

not anything to considered an official forecast ....

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#157 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:08 pm

Alyono wrote:I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October


We have seen that entire scope today. Hook in a bunker, down the middle of the fairway , and heavy slice into the forest. No surprise.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#158 Postby blp » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:49 pm

Majority of the 18z ensembles keep it in the Carribean. You have 5 members north of Puerto Rico. Let's see if this is a new trend or just an outlier.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#159 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:10 pm

makes me wonder if the NHC is going to mention this in their 8am outlook

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#160 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:21 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:makes me wonder if the NHC is going to mention this in their 8am outlook

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Possibly. If not at 8 AM, I think it'll get a mention sometime tomorrow. Incidentally, the S2K disclaimer is no longer required. Since it just makes each page longer to scroll, it would be better to omit it.
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