Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[hurricanehunter69]

So we've gone from low rider to OTS in the eastern Caribbean.....? My money is on "Caribbean Cruiser" and splitting the difference.

[TheStormExpert]

Majority of the 18z ensembles keep it in the Carribean. You have 5 members north of Puerto Rico. Let's see if this is a new trend or just an outlier.

According to the 18z GEFS Ensembles a recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean is seemingly more likely.

[TheStormExpert]

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October

Why not now?

If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.

[gatorcane]

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October

Why not now?

If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.

Not buying that GFS early recurve either. For one thing it recurves beyond 192 hours where the model is subject to large errors. Second the long-range ECMWF and CMC show nowhere near the pronounced weakness that GFS is showing which is more in line with climo. For example, the ECMWF 10-day shows ridging building back in north of the Caribbean in the wake of the trough. Third, it could be deepening the wave too quickly in the Eastern Caribbean anyway.

[sma10]

Yeah, looks like the gfs develops an enormous low in the central Atlantic that allows the system to escape. It also developed this same low in the 12z run but the Caribbean cruiser was slower to develop on that run, so it escaped the connection.

[SeGaBob]

Never bet against the recurve. It happens 99 percent of the time.

[TheStormExpert]

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October

Why not now?

If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.

Not buying that GFS early recurve either. For one thing it recurves beyond 192 hours where the model is subject to large errors. Second the long-range ECMWF and CMC show nowhere near the pronounced weakness that GFS is showing which is more in line with climo. For example, the ECMWF 10-day shows ridging building back in north of the Caribbean in the wake of the trough. Third, it could be deepening the wave too quickly in the Eastern Caribbean anyway.

http://s9.postimg.org/3u9dz7v5r/ecmwf_z ... atl_11.png

You're probably right about it not ramping up in the Eastern Caribbean, but I've noticed this season that even the weakest and shallowest storms like Karl for instance have been able to recurve despite their strength.

[centuryv58]

I could see that track in late October or November

NOT in late September or early October

Why not now?

If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.

Not buying that GFS early recurve either. For one thing it recurves beyond 192 hours where the model is subject to large errors. Second the long-range ECMWF and CMC show nowhere near the pronounced weakness that GFS is showing which is more in line with climo. For example, the ECMWF 10-day shows ridging building back in north of the Caribbean in the wake of the trough. Third, it could be deepening the wave too quickly in the Eastern Caribbean anyway.

Again, your take on this beats the other assessments.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If Pouch 39 were to track on a track north of the Carib, you could use a 1960 Donna track as a comparison. For anyone in the South Florida area that would not be good. Of course the time line being this far out, who knows if anything develops how strong it will be let alone where it will go.

[floridasun78]

If Pouch 39 were to track on a track north of the Carib, you could use a 1960 Donna track as a comparison. For anyone in the South Florida area that would not be good. Of course the time line being this far out, who knows if anything develops how strong it will be let alone where it will go.

true we need how it look when wave move off Africa that not happen yet i wont look models that good until it central Atlantic

[sma10]

Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS

[blp]

Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS

Agreed the big low is further east. The system is slightly weaker and further south. Should keep it contained.

[toad strangler]

0z GFS back with the LOW rider through 168 moving through the S Leewards

[USTropics]

Through 168 hours, the 850mb vorticity is slightly further south than the 18z run (but further north than the 12z or 06z run from yesterday). The big trough in the CATL is setting up a tad bit further NE as well:

[sma10]

Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS

Agreed the big low is further east. The system is slightly weaker and further south. Should keep it contained.

Or then again....

[WeatherEmperor]

198hrs looks like NW towards PR


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[toad strangler]

Feeling weakness again and NW jog @198 it seems

[blp]

Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS

Agreed the big low is further east. The system is slightly weaker and further south. Should keep it contained.

Or then again....

Neverending looks like the 18z now. New trend let's see what Euro says.

[toad strangler]

Heading right for Puerto Rico @ 216 and definite NNW if not Due N direction. Seemingly ready for 2nd sharp recurve run in a row.

[toad strangler]

Weak sauce right into PR @234 and due N movement