Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
So we've gone from low rider to OTS in the eastern Caribbean.....? My money is on "Caribbean Cruiser" and splitting the difference.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
blp wrote:Majority of the 18z ensembles keep it in the Carribean. You have 5 members north of Puerto Rico. Let's see if this is a new trend or just an outlier.
According to the 18z GEFS Ensembles a recurve north out of the Eastern Caribbean is seemingly more likely.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Alyono wrote:I could see that track in late October or November
NOT in late September or early October
Why not now?
If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
TheStormExpert wrote:Alyono wrote:I could see that track in late October or November
NOT in late September or early October
Why not now?
If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.
Not buying that GFS early recurve either. For one thing it recurves beyond 192 hours where the model is subject to large errors. Second the long-range ECMWF and CMC show nowhere near the pronounced weakness that GFS is showing which is more in line with climo. For example, the ECMWF 10-day shows ridging building back in north of the Caribbean in the wake of the trough. Third, it could be deepening the wave too quickly in the Eastern Caribbean anyway.

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Yeah, looks like the gfs develops an enormous low in the central Atlantic that allows the system to escape. It also developed this same low in the 12z run but the Caribbean cruiser was slower to develop on that run, so it escaped the connection.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Never bet against the recurve. It happens 99 percent of the time.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
gatorcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Alyono wrote:I could see that track in late October or November
NOT in late September or early October
Why not now?
If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.
Not buying that GFS early recurve either. For one thing it recurves beyond 192 hours where the model is subject to large errors. Second the long-range ECMWF and CMC show nowhere near the pronounced weakness that GFS is showing which is more in line with climo. For example, the ECMWF 10-day shows ridging building back in north of the Caribbean in the wake of the trough. Third, it could be deepening the wave too quickly in the Eastern Caribbean anyway.
http://s9.postimg.org/3u9dz7v5r/ecmwf_z ... atl_11.png
You're probably right about it not ramping up in the Eastern Caribbean, but I've noticed this season that even the weakest and shallowest storms like Karl for instance have been able to recurve despite their strength.
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- centuryv58
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
gatorcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Alyono wrote:I could see that track in late October or November
NOT in late September or early October
Why not now?
If there is a deep enough trough it will more than likely recurve OTS. Storms do not always follow climatological tracks.
Not buying that GFS early recurve either. For one thing it recurves beyond 192 hours where the model is subject to large errors. Second the long-range ECMWF and CMC show nowhere near the pronounced weakness that GFS is showing which is more in line with climo. For example, the ECMWF 10-day shows ridging building back in north of the Caribbean in the wake of the trough. Third, it could be deepening the wave too quickly in the Eastern Caribbean anyway.
Again, your take on this beats the other assessments.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
If Pouch 39 were to track on a track north of the Carib, you could use a 1960 Donna track as a comparison. For anyone in the South Florida area that would not be good. Of course the time line being this far out, who knows if anything develops how strong it will be let alone where it will go.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:If Pouch 39 were to track on a track north of the Carib, you could use a 1960 Donna track as a comparison. For anyone in the South Florida area that would not be good. Of course the time line being this far out, who knows if anything develops how strong it will be let alone where it will go.
true we need how it look when wave move off Africa that not happen yet i wont look models that good until it central Atlantic
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
sma10 wrote:Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS
Agreed the big low is further east. The system is slightly weaker and further south. Should keep it contained.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
0z GFS back with the LOW rider through 168 moving through the S Leewards
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Through 168 hours, the 850mb vorticity is slightly further south than the 18z run (but further north than the 12z or 06z run from yesterday). The big trough in the CATL is setting up a tad bit further NE as well:


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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
blp wrote:sma10 wrote:Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS
Agreed the big low is further east. The system is slightly weaker and further south. Should keep it contained.
Or then again....
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
198hrs looks like NW towards PR
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Feeling weakness again and NW jog @198 it seems
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
sma10 wrote:blp wrote:sma10 wrote:Subtle differences so far on 0z run suggests this one will not be OTS
Agreed the big low is further east. The system is slightly weaker and further south. Should keep it contained.
Or then again....
Neverending looks like the 18z now. New trend let's see what Euro says.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Heading right for Puerto Rico @ 216 and definite NNW if not Due N direction. Seemingly ready for 2nd sharp recurve run in a row.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)
Weak sauce right into PR @234 and due N movement
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