ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

ignore HWRF. It develops both area of vorticity

[toad strangler]

FWIW, 6z NAVGEM rides in on the high side closer to PR / DOM

[Hurricaneman]

ignore HWRF. It develops both area of vorticity

The area near 37W is the area thats going to pop according to most of the models. Any area farther east doesn't stand much of a chance so yep the HWRF is garbage

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hurricaneman]

FWIW, 6z NAVGEM rides in on the high side closer to PR / DOM

The NAVGEM model always tends to be the most NE of the models and is usually wrong

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[toad strangler]

FWIW, 6z NAVGEM rides in on the high side closer to PR / DOM

The NAVGEM model always tends to be the most NE of the models and is usually wrong

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Thats why I said FWIW

[HurricaneBelle]

If you are in the gfs track now I would feel somewhat ok....I'm worried about the models in 4 to 5 days say

Models 10 days out on Hermine had a hurricane in the eastern Gulf. Just as there's no guarantee they'll be right, there's also no guarantee they'll be wrong.

[weatherwindow]

Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.

If that grain of salt comes to fruition at 946 mbar it would be the strongest hurricane ever to landfall Key West and the lower keys ... The previous unofficial record estimate would be 964 mb during the hurricane of storm 9/21/1948 another storm out of the Western Caribbean .... Also remember that the great labor day hurricane of 1935 landfall the Upper Keys...The impact at Key West was limited to tropical storm conditions...Rich

[robbielyn]

Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.

If that grain of salt comes to fruition at 946 mbar it would be the strongest hurricane ever to landfall Key West and the lower keys ... The previous unofficial record estimate would be 938 mbar during the great hurricane of 1846 another October storm out of the Western Caribbean .... Also remember that the great labor day hurricane of 1935 landfall the Upper Keys...The impact at Key West was limited to tropical storm conditions...Rich

usually when models give this solution it never comes to fruition probably why poster said we should be ok. it improbable but not impossible. I certainly dont buy this solution. if it hits florida id say panhandle or miami not in between.

[HURRICANELONNY]

GFS - Go Get Florida. Every year GFS aims at Florida. It gets so bad that I know I'm in the clear if GFS shows it hitting Floida.

[JPmia]

For one run.... 2 weeks away... ok.

you guys/gals maybe looking at the one run this morning but go back and look where the models were yesterday and the day before...you are correct that one run isnt a trend so dont look at one run, i dont

You can't pick and choose what to look at to fit your narrative of it heading towards you, the fact is there is no trend.

Can we cut out the disdain some show others for expressing their opinion based on how they look at the data? I've loved this board for well over 10 years, but this stuff happens all the time and it gets old quick.. trends or not let's just enjoy the analysis and appreciate everyone's interest in the tropics. On topic.. I think at this point the Ensembles seem to be the best way to view this at the moment.

[jlauderdal]

GFS - Go Get Florida. Every year GFS aims at Florida. It gets so bad that I know I'm in the clear if GFS shows it hitting Floida.

yep...we were nailed by a very intense hermine this year now this one...one of these days we will get it though

[toad strangler]

Any Jamaican posters here? Remarkable how consistent the GFS has been in raking the island.

[weatherwindow]

Looks like a SW Florida landfall coming up, maybe up the coast? 946 mbs, 264 hours, take it with a grain of salt.



If that grain of salt comes to fruition at 946 mbar it would be the strongest hurricane ever to landfall Key West and the lower keys ... The previous unofficial record estimate would be 938 mbar during the great hurricane of 1846 another October storm out of the Western Caribbean .... Also remember that the great labor day hurricane of 1935 landfall the Upper Keys...The impact at Key West was limited to tropical storm conditions...Rich

usually when models give this solution it never comes to fruition probably why poster said we should be ok. it improbable but not impossible. I certainly dont buy this solution. if it hits florida id say panhandle or miami not in between.

In my previous post I was not commenting on the probability of 97L landfalling Key West I was simply commenting on the fact that if it did it would represent a modern record low pressure.Hence my tacit agreement with a grain of salt comment I certainly hope for my own sake that your perception of the models proves to be correct...Rich

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the upper air charts and trends, I can't help but compare this to Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Almost the same time of year and position too.

[Kazmit]

That's a pinhole eye.

[SFLcane]

57 I see you! How are you feeling about Florida?

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM 180 hours moving NW. Like the GFS, the model has sped up the timeframe.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGfs starts in a few, what will it show

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 12zGfs starts in a few, what will it show

I will guess that it will trend toward the ECMWF on a OTS track.

[SeGaBob]

My east of Bermuda prediction looks good now.