ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

According to this the models are agreeing on a track similar to 97Ls #1 Analog Flora 1963

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972016_analogs.png

[ThetaE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/780142940937031681

[blp]

12z euro ensembles still west of the ops run.

[Hurricaneman]

And looking at things it seems several of the Euro ensembels are still in the GOM long range so its still not cut and dry

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[stormlover2013]

Tough pattern for the models right now

[cajungal]

I was wondering even if it goes by the Bahamas like some of the models are showing. If high pressure could build back in and push it back towards Florida and the gulf. Prob not since this is October and not Aug.

[PTrackerLA]

Quite a few Euro ensembles in the Gulf by day 10-12

[weatherwindow]

Climatology and history in general are strongly in favor of an OTS scenario. So without any model evidence that is the odds on favorite. But now that models are apparently backing up climo it seems to me to be an even stronger case. Of course the odds are beaten every day so if anything can happen. We shall see.
I'm no expert just adding my two cents.

If it passes over the ABC islands as progged it would be extremely unlikely to follow the path the Euro suggests of recurve over Hispaniola. I could not find one case on record.

A 30 year history with emergency management has given me something of a historical perspective both from an operational and climatological viewpoint ... It would require a troughing on a scale of 3 to 4 standard deviations from climo norms for late September and early October in order to produce A 90° recurve ar or south of 12°N... Well yes I realize that it is certainly possible but also statistically improbable which cast doubt on it's verification ....Rich

[centuryv58]

Climatology and history in general are strongly in favor of an OTS scenario. So without any model evidence that is the odds on favorite. But now that models are apparently backing up climo it seems to me to be an even stronger case. Of course the odds are beaten every day so if anything can happen. We shall see.
I'm no expert just adding my two cents.

If it passes over the ABC islands as progged it would be extremely unlikely to follow the path the Euro suggests of recurve over Hispaniola. I could not find one case on record.

[im g]http://oi66.tinypic.com/10e0rhc.jpg[/img]

A 30 year history with emergency management has given me something of a historical perspective both from an operational and climatological viewpoint ... It would require a troughing on a scale of 3 to 4 standard deviations from climo norms for late September and early October in order to produce A 90° recurve ar or south of 12°N... Well yes I realize that it is certainly possible but also statistically improbable which cast doubt on it's verification ....Rich

While you make very great sense with your observation, the weather cognoscenti elsewhere seem to think such a radical maneuver may occur.

[jlauderdal]

I was wondering even if it goes by the Bahamas like some of the models are showing. If high pressure could build back in and push it back towards Florida and the gulf. Prob not since this is October and not Aug.

unlikely because if it takes the easterly route it will be full on acceleration out to sea

[USTropics]

Can someone with knowledge of teleconnections tell us what this "should" do based on that? What is currently happening in the Pacific or is it too far out to call still?

Also, the HWRF is useless to me until we have a formed storm. Then I give more weight to it. In that gif the HWRF has this running right into a 1021 H. Is that even possible? Wouldn't the H need to be moving out of the way?

Are you talking about the teleconnection between recurving typhoons or systems in the EPAC affecting the ATL?

Looking at the 500mb heights of the HWRF, it doesn't really move the ridge, the ridge is just elongated from NE to SW. Being that it is the HWRF, it's also showing a major hurricane. Very strong hurricanes can sort of create an indentation in the ridge as they push up against it, it appears 97L is doing this as well in this model.

As many have stated before, the HWRF and GFDL are poor until tropical genesis has actually occurred, but there is some useful meteorological data that can be inferred from them.

[cajungal]

I was wondering even if it goes by the Bahamas like some of the models are showing. If high pressure could build back in and push it back towards Florida and the gulf. Prob not since this is October and not Aug.

unlikely because if it takes the easterly route it will be full on acceleration out to sea

That is exactly what I thought. But it still had me thinking. As of now looking a lot better for the Gulf Coast.

[LarryWx]

Looking at the 50 individual 12Z Euro ensemble members, the 12Z Euro operational run is to the east, in many cases well to the east, of almost all of its ensemble members suggesting there is a much higher threat to the Conus based on the Euro ensemble than the near zero threat suggested by the operational Euro run.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like through 18hrs it has slightly more ridging

[SeGaBob]

Lets see if the GFS goes even further east at 18Z.

[Kazmit]

That's a monster.

[tolakram]

A 30 year history with emergency management has given me something of a historical perspective both from an operational and climatological viewpoint ... It would require a troughing on a scale of 3 to 4 standard deviations from climo norms for late September and early October in order to produce A 90° recurve ar or south of 12°N... Well yes I realize that it is certainly possible but also statistically improbable which cast doubt on it's verification ....Rich

Historically that graph shows that while the favored route is to stay south a recurve has a slightly better chance of going east of Florida, 3 to 2.

Using the latest GFS and a 50nm radius of the 126 hour position I get 5 to 1 most likely to go east of Florida IF it recurves (Bob, two go east of Bermuda, there's still hope. ).



Simply looking at history would in fact show low odds of hitting Florida, but of course past tracks are, in my opinion, don't tell us that much.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS running

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like the cutoff low is a little west of the 12zGFS at 54 which could mean farther west this run but Florida should still be safe

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[sma10]

Looking at the 50 individual 12Z Euro ensemble members, the 12Z Euro operational run is to the east, in many cases well to the east, of almost all of its ensemble members suggesting there is a much higher threat to the Conus based on the Euro ensemble than the near zero threat suggested by the operational Euro run.

I've heard this bandied about a lot the past couple of days, and of course a lot over the years. But I've never asked: how is this info interpreted? After all, isn't the operational run supposed to be the "best" representation? In other words, wouldn't the OP run be considered more reliable than any 1 individual ensemble track? Just curious how the pros interpret this output.