ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#381 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:43 pm

According to this the models are agreeing on a track similar to 97Ls #1 Analog Flora 1963

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972016_analogs.png

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#382 Postby ThetaE » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:45 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#383 Postby blp » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:46 pm

12z euro ensembles still west of the ops run.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#384 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:57 pm

And looking at things it seems several of the Euro ensembels are still in the GOM long range so its still not cut and dry

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#385 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:02 pm

Tough pattern for the models right now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#386 Postby cajungal » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:10 pm

I was wondering even if it goes by the Bahamas like some of the models are showing. If high pressure could build back in and push it back towards Florida and the gulf. Prob not since this is October and not Aug.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#387 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:14 pm

Quite a few Euro ensembles in the Gulf by day 10-12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#388 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:16 pm

blp wrote:
otowntiger wrote:Climatology and history in general are strongly in favor of an OTS scenario. So without any model evidence that is the odds on favorite. But now that models are apparently backing up climo it seems to me to be an even stronger case. Of course the odds are beaten every day so if anything can happen. We shall see.
I'm no expert just adding my two cents.


If it passes over the ABC islands as progged it would be extremely unlikely to follow the path the Euro suggests of recurve over Hispaniola. I could not find one case on record.

Image


A 30 year history with emergency management has given me something of a historical perspective both from an operational and climatological viewpoint ... It would require a troughing on a scale of 3 to 4 standard deviations from climo norms for late September and early October in order to produce A 90° recurve ar or south of 12°N... Well yes I realize that it is certainly possible but also statistically improbable which cast doubt on it's verification ....Rich
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#389 Postby centuryv58 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:18 pm

weatherwindow wrote:
blp wrote:
otowntiger wrote:Climatology and history in general are strongly in favor of an OTS scenario. So without any model evidence that is the odds on favorite. But now that models are apparently backing up climo it seems to me to be an even stronger case. Of course the odds are beaten every day so if anything can happen. We shall see.
I'm no expert just adding my two cents.


If it passes over the ABC islands as progged it would be extremely unlikely to follow the path the Euro suggests of recurve over Hispaniola. I could not find one case on record.

[im g]http://oi66.tinypic.com/10e0rhc.jpg[/img]




A 30 year history with emergency management has given me something of a historical perspective both from an operational and climatological viewpoint ... It would require a troughing on a scale of 3 to 4 standard deviations from climo norms for late September and early October in order to produce A 90° recurve ar or south of 12°N... Well yes I realize that it is certainly possible but also statistically improbable which cast doubt on it's verification ....Rich



While you make very great sense with your observation, the weather cognoscenti elsewhere seem to think such a radical maneuver may occur.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#390 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:21 pm

cajungal wrote:I was wondering even if it goes by the Bahamas like some of the models are showing. If high pressure could build back in and push it back towards Florida and the gulf. Prob not since this is October and not Aug.
unlikely because if it takes the easterly route it will be full on acceleration out to sea
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#391 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:25 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can someone with knowledge of teleconnections tell us what this "should" do based on that? What is currently happening in the Pacific or is it too far out to call still?

Also, the HWRF is useless to me until we have a formed storm. Then I give more weight to it. In that gif the HWRF has this running right into a 1021 H. Is that even possible? Wouldn't the H need to be moving out of the way?


Are you talking about the teleconnection between recurving typhoons or systems in the EPAC affecting the ATL?

Looking at the 500mb heights of the HWRF, it doesn't really move the ridge, the ridge is just elongated from NE to SW. Being that it is the HWRF, it's also showing a major hurricane. Very strong hurricanes can sort of create an indentation in the ridge as they push up against it, it appears 97L is doing this as well in this model.

As many have stated before, the HWRF and GFDL are poor until tropical genesis has actually occurred, but there is some useful meteorological data that can be inferred from them.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#392 Postby cajungal » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:26 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
cajungal wrote:I was wondering even if it goes by the Bahamas like some of the models are showing. If high pressure could build back in and push it back towards Florida and the gulf. Prob not since this is October and not Aug.
unlikely because if it takes the easterly route it will be full on acceleration out to sea

That is exactly what I thought. But it still had me thinking. As of now looking a lot better for the Gulf Coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#393 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:33 pm

Looking at the 50 individual 12Z Euro ensemble members, the 12Z Euro operational run is to the east, in many cases well to the east, of almost all of its ensemble members suggesting there is a much higher threat to the Conus based on the Euro ensemble than the near zero threat suggested by the operational Euro run.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#394 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:33 pm

It looks like through 18hrs it has slightly more ridging
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#395 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:33 pm

Lets see if the GFS goes even further east at 18Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#396 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:33 pm

That's a monster.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#397 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:40 pm

weatherwindow wrote:
A 30 year history with emergency management has given me something of a historical perspective both from an operational and climatological viewpoint ... It would require a troughing on a scale of 3 to 4 standard deviations from climo norms for late September and early October in order to produce A 90° recurve ar or south of 12°N... Well yes I realize that it is certainly possible but also statistically improbable which cast doubt on it's verification ....Rich


Historically that graph shows that while the favored route is to stay south a recurve has a slightly better chance of going east of Florida, 3 to 2.

Using the latest GFS and a 50nm radius of the 126 hour position I get 5 to 1 most likely to go east of Florida IF it recurves (Bob, two go east of Bermuda, there's still hope. :lol: ).

Image

Simply looking at history would in fact show low odds of hitting Florida, but of course past tracks are, in my opinion, don't tell us that much.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#398 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:42 pm

18Z GFS running

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#399 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:46 pm

It looks like the cutoff low is a little west of the 12zGFS at 54 which could mean farther west this run but Florida should still be safe

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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#400 Postby sma10 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:55 pm

LarryWx wrote:Looking at the 50 individual 12Z Euro ensemble members, the 12Z Euro operational run is to the east, in many cases well to the east, of almost all of its ensemble members suggesting there is a much higher threat to the Conus based on the Euro ensemble than the near zero threat suggested by the operational Euro run.


I've heard this bandied about a lot the past couple of days, and of course a lot over the years. But I've never asked: how is this info interpreted? After all, isn't the operational run supposed to be the "best" representation? In other words, wouldn't the OP run be considered more reliable than any 1 individual ensemble track? Just curious how the pros interpret this output.
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