ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#881 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:25 pm

GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#882 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:28 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR


I think you mean DR, but it looks like on the border between Haiti and DR.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#883 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:28 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR


Puerto Rico has a strong and modern utility grid. Even with this potential storm one would expect very few power outages.

Sarcasm off.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#884 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:29 pm

The GFS is much faster then the Euro. At 186 hours the 18z GFS has future Matthew northeast of the Turks & Caicos while at 198 hours the 12Z Euro is still south of Haiti. Will be interesting to see model gets it right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#885 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:30 pm

At this rate, the GFS will still be showing a Bermuda recurve when the system is by Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#886 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:33 pm

I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#887 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:33 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR


Puerto Rico has a strong and modern utility grid. Even with this potential storm one would expect very few power outages.

Sarcasm off.


haha, that modern power grid was rock solid last week..cycloneye can fill us in on the details...its not exactly stable in sofla..i have power surges several times a month in FLL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#888 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:36 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.


Hurricane Tomas did in 2010....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Tomas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#889 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:36 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.


I tend to agree, believe the ridge builds back quicker and we have a weaker trough over the western Gulf after the split. Still a fairly quick trade wind going through the Carib. and with the dry air coming down off the mountains of SA this doesn't deepen as quickly as the GFS has it doing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#890 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:37 pm

The 18Z GFS has trended SW from the 12Z GFS so far through 216 hours. Also the steering pattern is somewhat different then the 12Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#891 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:37 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#892 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:39 pm

I think timing is the key AFTER the Caribbean (and what may very well be a horrendous hit).

Around October 9 or so the trough will open up an east coast hit. If the storm is gone away before then, then out to sea seems reasonable. But if it is still laying around then, it could get caught up and send back west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#893 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:39 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.


Hurricane Tomas did in 2010....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Tomas


Yes but Tomas was in late October/early November not late September/early October
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#894 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:44 pm

That is a gigantic ridge north of the system that the GFS insists on plowing it through.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#895 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:46 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:That is a gigantic ridge north of the system that the GFS insists on plowing it through.


It's literally stuck at 240 hours. The ridge penetrates both east and west, so it is a case of who breaks down first.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#896 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:49 pm

The upper air setup of mid latitude weather at 240 hrs is a crap shoot, though I do like the Euro having a sharper trough over the midwest for the time of year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#897 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:49 pm

Left hook near maine
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#898 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:50 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:That is a gigantic ridge north of the system that the GFS insists on plowing it through.
did the same thing with hermine east of Florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#899 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:50 pm

The key is to get the storm out to sea by October 7.

GFS now turns it back into New England with a pressure around 942.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#900 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:50 pm

This GFS run seems fishy. The ECMWF might be on to something.
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