ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AutoPenalti]

GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR

[tolakram]

GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR

I think you mean DR, but it looks like on the border between Haiti and DR.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR

Puerto Rico has a strong and modern utility grid. Even with this potential storm one would expect very few power outages.

Sarcasm off.

[Bocadude85]

The GFS is much faster then the Euro. At 186 hours the 18z GFS has future Matthew northeast of the Turks & Caicos while at 198 hours the 12Z Euro is still south of Haiti. Will be interesting to see model gets it right.

[OntarioEggplant]

At this rate, the GFS will still be showing a Bermuda recurve when the system is by Jamaica.

[GeneratorPower]

I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.

[jlauderdal]

GFS with a Cat 3/4 before slamming into PR

Puerto Rico has a strong and modern utility grid. Even with this potential storm one would expect very few power outages.

Sarcasm off.

haha, that modern power grid was rock solid last week..cycloneye can fill us in on the details...its not exactly stable in sofla..i have power surges several times a month in FLL

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.

Hurricane Tomas did in 2010....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Tomas

[Dean4Storms]

I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.

I tend to agree, believe the ridge builds back quicker and we have a weaker trough over the western Gulf after the split. Still a fairly quick trade wind going through the Carib. and with the dry air coming down off the mountains of SA this doesn't deepen as quickly as the GFS has it doing.

[Bocadude85]

The 18Z GFS has trended SW from the 12Z GFS so far through 216 hours. Also the steering pattern is somewhat different then the 12Z.

[tarheelprogrammer]

May be trapped under ridge on this run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092618&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=200

[CrazyC83]

I think timing is the key AFTER the Caribbean (and what may very well be a horrendous hit).

Around October 9 or so the trough will open up an east coast hit. If the storm is gone away before then, then out to sea seems reasonable. But if it is still laying around then, it could get caught up and send back west.

[Bocadude85]

I'd like to repeat my earlier amateur expectation of Matthew in the Yucatan Channel. I think it's far enough south that the cut off low and/or ridging will have a mediocre impact on future Matthew. A steady march towards the WNW then NW into the YC seems very possible and to me, logical. The GFS will almost certainly not be correct. That's an insane right hook in a part of the basin where I can't recall a recurve occurring in 13 years of watching these systems.

Hurricane Tomas did in 2010....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Tomas

Yes but Tomas was in late October/early November not late September/early October

[OntarioEggplant]

That is a gigantic ridge north of the system that the GFS insists on plowing it through.

[CrazyC83]

That is a gigantic ridge north of the system that the GFS insists on plowing it through.

It's literally stuck at 240 hours. The ridge penetrates both east and west, so it is a case of who breaks down first.

[xironman]

The upper air setup of mid latitude weather at 240 hrs is a crap shoot, though I do like the Euro having a sharper trough over the midwest for the time of year.

[Alyono]

Left hook near maine

[jlauderdal]

That is a gigantic ridge north of the system that the GFS insists on plowing it through.

did the same thing with hermine east of Florida

[CrazyC83]

The key is to get the storm out to sea by October 7.

GFS now turns it back into New England with a pressure around 942.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This GFS run seems fishy. The ECMWF might be on to something.