ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[centuryv58]

Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West

Yes, can't see any recurve anywhere yet.

[CrazyC83]

Why is there such a huge timing difference?

[Alyono]

May end up near Bermuda this run

[Alyono]

Why is there such a huge timing difference?

Because one is the dynamically deficient MU

[CrazyC83]

Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West

Yes, can't see any recurve anywhere yet.

It's not the turn location that matters as much as the timing of the trough (and the intensity). The longer it takes for this to clear the Caribbean, the less the chance for a recurve.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC with a slight shift west and faster:
12Z (latest):


00Z:

[Alyono]

Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West

Yes, can't see any recurve anywhere yet.

It's not the turn location that matters as much as the timing of the trough (and the intensity). The longer it takes for this to clear the Caribbean, the less the chance for a recurve.

Maybe not. This one shifted big time to the east, despite the slower motion in the Caribbean

[tolakram]

GEFS will be interesting, I wonder if any of the members have broken west this time.

[KWT]

Why is there such a huge timing difference?

I think the GFS basically totally opens the door and the system moves right into that weakness, the ECM has the door slammed in its face so it slows back down again.

I think the general idea of the W/WSW track till 70-75W then a bend to the NNW/N looks a lock on, but how the upper flow evolves beyond that point will determine whether it goes out to sea after raking land, or whether it bends back towards the states in some form.

[chaser1]

I see whats happening here though. Looking at the GFS 500mb anomolies it appears that a mid level cut off to its east has had greater influence in breaking down the strong ridge over the N.E. US; this in tandem with a lightning fast trough that suddenly shoots WSW from the N. Atlantic trough near the Azores, all working in tandem to temporarily break down the ridging to the north of the Caribbean. In fact, for a couple frames it even looks as if the storm is moving East of due north, but this looks to abruptly change with a rebuilding high that looks to possibly block and force the storm NW toward New Jersey or Long Island.

[TheStormExpert]

So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't buy the East shift. I think i.e. Will be too weak and too far South to get plucked out of the southern Carib

[KWT]

UKMET shifts east a bit

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.9N 61.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 36 13.8N 62.9W 1007 35
1200UTC 29.09.2016 48 13.8N 66.0W 1003 42
0000UTC 30.09.2016 60 13.6N 68.4W 998 51
1200UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 70.5W 989 57
0000UTC 01.10.2016 84 12.7N 72.0W 987 61
1200UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.2N 73.4W 989 56
0000UTC 02.10.2016 108 12.2N 74.6W 995 42
1200UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.8N 75.0W 993 46
0000UTC 03.10.2016 132 14.5N 75.5W 988 52
1200UTC 03.10.2016 144 15.9N 75.7W 980 60

Whats interesting is how much slower the UKMO is. The GFS is already about to leave the Caribbean by that point!

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think the big player for a US hit will be the deep low coming down over Canada through the Midwest combining a with a possible east coast low (moves up from the coastal Carolinas) to provide the weakness out to sea (hopefully). Its too early yet, but by Sunday we should be able to see if this synoptic pattern is verifying. If the lows retrograde from Indiana, or fill in etc. the ridge looks like it will build back and trap this and it could hit the NE US.

Lots stuff in play at this phase...

[SeGaBob]

So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?

Likely So...they will all be east of Bermuda in a couple of days.

[p1nheadlarry]

Think this MU will be a miss. Trough not as strong as in 6Z,. Not the negative tilt

Negative tilt would be bad for the seaboard, right?

[PTrackerLA]

GFS looks to threaten the Northeast or Nova Scotia at hour 234, so it is pulled back in again somewhat

[Alyono]

Think this MU will be a miss. Trough not as strong as in 6Z,. Not the negative tilt

Negative tilt would be bad for the seaboard, right?

yes. Thus, to get this to hit the coast, we need a STRONGER trough. A weaker trough will equal a miss

[KWT]

So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?

Likely So...they will all be east of Bermuda in a couple of days.

Even the GFS is not that far east...yet!

In all seriousness though, it looks like a tough call, the UKMO is a little east but we don't know yet what the upper synoptics look like. For example at 168hrs the weakness may close on that run and do what the ECM did.

I don't think anyone is denying a northerly motion WILL happen, but to what extent and is it enough to force it right out to sea is a real big question that is not going to be answered by just this suite of models.

Some are trending west, some are going more east...

[Hurricaneman]

The difference this run from the 6Z on the GFS is the dip around 65W in the Caribbean but really doesn't change the outcome much

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