ConvergenceZone wrote:Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West
Yes, can't see any recurve anywhere yet.
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ConvergenceZone wrote:Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West
CrazyC83 wrote:Why is there such a huge timing difference?
centuryv58 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West
Yes, can't see any recurve anywhere yet.
CrazyC83 wrote:centuryv58 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West
Yes, can't see any recurve anywhere yet.
It's not the turn location that matters as much as the timing of the trough (and the intensity). The longer it takes for this to clear the Caribbean, the less the chance for a recurve.
CrazyC83 wrote:Why is there such a huge timing difference?
Alyono wrote:UKMET shifts east a bit
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.9N 61.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 36 13.8N 62.9W 1007 35
1200UTC 29.09.2016 48 13.8N 66.0W 1003 42
0000UTC 30.09.2016 60 13.6N 68.4W 998 51
1200UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 70.5W 989 57
0000UTC 01.10.2016 84 12.7N 72.0W 987 61
1200UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.2N 73.4W 989 56
0000UTC 02.10.2016 108 12.2N 74.6W 995 42
1200UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.8N 75.0W 993 46
0000UTC 03.10.2016 132 14.5N 75.5W 988 52
1200UTC 03.10.2016 144 15.9N 75.7W 980 60
TheStormExpert wrote:So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?
Alyono wrote:Think this MU will be a miss. Trough not as strong as in 6Z,. Not the negative tilt
p1nheadlarry wrote:Alyono wrote:Think this MU will be a miss. Trough not as strong as in 6Z,. Not the negative tilt
Negative tilt would be bad for the seaboard, right?
SeGaBob wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?
Likely So...they will all be east of Bermuda in a couple of days.
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