ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[chaser1]

In the nearer term it looks like the primary difference between the models involves whether the GFS is overdoing the influence that the cut-off northeast of the Virgin Islands will play toward eroding the W. Atlantic ridge, especially if one takes into account the rather low latitude and assumed postion of practically reaching 75W. Seems to me that the GFS is really overplaying the influence of that cut-off feature. No doubt that all the other globals see this feature as a much lesser influence to cause such an immediate right hand turn. That suddenly appearing northeast southwest trough that pops into the scene around Nova Scotia seems a bit suspect too (I wonder if Ninel Conde has anything to do with that ?)

[Alyono]

much to my surprise, the MU swings a bit west at the longer range

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 12z GFS is a touch west going through the Greater Antilles/Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas but then shifted a little further east thereafter before swinging closer to the NE U.S. at the end of the run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC also trended further east toward the end of its run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092712&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=200

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like were in 2 camps again...Euro vs GFS...Lets see who(what model) looks like the genius in the end once again.

[TheStormExpert]

CMC also trended further east toward the end of its run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092712&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=200

Not a whole lot but yeah it no longer makes landfall in Eastern NC.

[KWT]

CMC also trended further east toward the end of its run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092712&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=200

Not a whole lot but yeah it no longer makes landfall in Eastern NC.

It does make landfall, its a close run thing but there is a technical landfall from the CMC.

[Hurricaneman]

The biggest difference in the GFS and the Euro is the low is there in the Azores on the GFS while the low isnt there on the Euro

[Alyono]

CMC also trended further east toward the end of its run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092712&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=200

Not a whole lot but yeah it no longer makes landfall in Eastern NC.

yeah it does, at Cape Lookout

[Bocadude85]

So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?

Likely So...they will all be east of Bermuda in a couple of days.

Even the GFS is not that far east...yet!

In all seriousness though, it looks like a tough call, the UKMO is a little east but we don't know yet what the upper synoptics look like. For example at 168hrs the weakness may close on that run and do what the ECM did.

I don't think anyone is denying a northerly motion WILL happen, but to what extent and is it enough to force it right out to sea is a real big question that is not going to be answered by just this suite of models.

Some are trending west, some are going more east...

Overall at least in the short to mid range the 12Z models have trended West so far.

[AutoPenalti]

So no more Florida threat?

[TimeZone]

GFS is out to lunch in fantasy land. Has what appears to be a cat 3 Hurricane crashing into Nova Scotia.

[Bocadude85]

So no more Florida threat?

I do not think the threat is any different from what it was last night. The Canadian and GFS models shifted west in the short to mid term and the Euro has not ran yet.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looks like were in 2 camps again...Euro vs GFS...Lets see who(what model) looks like the genius in the end once again.

this division in model output just shows tha there are very subtle features in the setup that could cause rather large differences in the final solutions. This certainly isn't uncommon in the timeframe we're talking about here. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see either model trend towards the other as we get closer in time and the pattern is nailed down.

[stormlover2013]

no threat to anyone right now till something develops, once it develops then everyone on the gulf coast and east coast needs to pay close attention

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the 12z Navgem??


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[stormlover2013]

its still running on tidbits but that model is worse than the CMC lol

[tolakram]

Does anybody have the 12z Navgem??


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It's just now running.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody have the 12z Navgem??


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It's just now running.

shifts east in the Bahamas:

[chaser1]

Its really quite interesting if you really take a close look at the EURO model verses the GFS. The difference in 120 hr. forecasts between the two is a result of the EURO moving slightly faster and slightly further west to a point near 12N and 77W at about 120 hours (from last night's 0Z). At the same time frame (108 hr.s from the 12Z run) the GFS has the center of the storm very very close at this point, and at around 14N and 75W. Whether the simply difference in track beyond that point has more to do with the 2 degree difference in which the EURO is further southwest, the influence of the cut-off low NE of the Virgin Islands, or a combination of the two, these really are nuances and not as if one model is seeing a huge trough while the other is seeing some mondo ridge. At this point though, if we were to see an altogether different result begin to play out, than we can then just throw all the models into the garbage lol. Otherwise, it looks like a broad general track is beginning to become a little bit more in view. Tricky part is that this track still poses the risk of a hurricane impacting any point between 70W and 85W, with a motion toward the north to Northwest. For now I"m sticking with my guns in thinking that 60mph tropical storm conditions will impact the Windwards and Leewards, and a strengthening hurricane to impact Jamaica and E. or Central Cuba.