ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb

Looks like Palm Beach would take a direct hit if it went out farther. Only silver lining is that how often does a 10-day Euro forecast verify?

It would have to wobble back left. It moves at a 355 heading in the final 6 hours

[caneseddy]

very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb

Very very narrow miss. Any shift to the west and you have a direct landfall in Miami

Still over a week away so plenty of time for the models to change.

[KWT]

very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb

Very impressive!

Still ECM looks like its on the eastern edge of the model support...still wouldn't tae much of a west shift from the likes of CMC (and UKMO probably looks similar based on its location at 144hrs, just slower) to look very similar to the ECM, even if they are faster.

[hurricaneCW]

General idea of where it's going to go looks good. But when does it start turning north, south of Haiti or near Jamaica? That'll likely have major implications as far as a potential US landfall.

How strong it ends up being by then will also make a big difference.

[sma10]

Wow:
https://s22.postimg.org/62d1keywx/ecmwf ... eus_11.png

Wow, what an enormous storm! Am i reading this correctly? Hurricane winds out 150+ miles and Tropical Storm force winds 300+ miles from the center?

[TimeZone]

Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane.

[stormlover2013]

calm down fellows we are still long long ways out.......I mean 10 days a tons can change

[SeGaBob]

Wow:
https://s22.postimg.org/62d1keywx/ecmwf ... eus_11.png

Wow, what an enormous storm! Am i reading this correctly? Hurricane winds out 150+ miles and Tropical Storm force winds 300+ miles from the center?

Sort of but that's not at surface level

[TheStormExpert]

Wow:
https://s22.postimg.org/62d1keywx/ecmwf ... eus_11.png

Wow, what an enormous storm! Am i reading this correctly? Hurricane winds out 150+ miles and Tropical Storm force winds 300+ miles from the center?

That's 850mb's up in the atmosphere so probably not but still would be a large windfield nonetheless.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane.

Exactly. That's what would be the saving grace (slightly) if it ended up interacting with it and weakening. Especially if the storm is strong when it makes landfall. A lot of times more powerful storms get ripped to shreds than weaker ones when going through a landmass or mountain range.

[ronyan]

Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane.

It's difficult to tell how long it's over Cuba in the 24hr panels, it could be pretty brief. Can anyone comment on the duration over Cuba with access to the shorter interval panels?

[fox13weather]

Wow:

Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Wow:
https://s22.postimg.org/62d1keywx/ecmwf ... eus_11.png

Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.

You think track shifts east?

[wxman57]

Remember the long-range model forecasts for Hermine. It never made landfall in TX or Louisiana as a major hurricane...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane.

I remember Georges taking Puerto Rico, the DR, Haiti and most of Cuba and emerging as a hurricane. I think these big storms with great upper level support can survive even mountainous land masses better.

[weatherwindow]

That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...

Agreed quasi-hurricane King...subtle difference hurricane King had a very distinct smooth curve rather than a straight north track out of the Caribbean however that curve was definitely a Northeast to North to Northwest progression.... I rather think that was the evidence of a rather strong Ridge building in from the East... Rich

[TheDreamTraveler]

Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.

Yeah. I remember for a good while the computer models were showing Hermine forming and impacting the East Coast and Florida as a powerful storm and it never materialized due to the storm never getting its act together until it was in the gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Remember..this hasn't formed yet and much depends where it slows in the Caribbean and begins to turn...10 days out and very dynamic situation...many long nights ahead

[p1nheadlarry]

That is the strangest track I ever seen.

That is Hazel one side down the other

[stormlover2013]

ivanhater some people don't understand that, 10 days out heck this won't be consistent till 4-5 days out