ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Alyono
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1321 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:03 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Alyono wrote:very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb


Looks like Palm Beach would take a direct hit if it went out farther. Only silver lining is that how often does a 10-day Euro forecast verify?


It would have to wobble back left. It moves at a 355 heading in the final 6 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1322 Postby caneseddy » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:03 pm

Alyono wrote:very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb


Very very narrow miss. Any shift to the west and you have a direct landfall in Miami

Still over a week away so plenty of time for the models to change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1323 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:04 pm

Alyono wrote:very narrow miss of Miami with a pressure of 930mb


Very impressive!

Still ECM looks like its on the eastern edge of the model support...still wouldn't tae much of a west shift from the likes of CMC (and UKMO probably looks similar based on its location at 144hrs, just slower) to look very similar to the ECM, even if they are faster.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1324 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:06 pm

General idea of where it's going to go looks good. But when does it start turning north, south of Haiti or near Jamaica? That'll likely have major implications as far as a potential US landfall.

How strong it ends up being by then will also make a big difference.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1325 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:07 pm




Wow, what an enormous storm! Am i reading this correctly? Hurricane winds out 150+ miles and Tropical Storm force winds 300+ miles from the center?
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1326 Postby TimeZone » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:07 pm

Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane. :roll: :lol:
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1327 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:08 pm

calm down fellows we are still long long ways out.......I mean 10 days a tons can change
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1328 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:09 pm

sma10 wrote:



Wow, what an enormous storm! Am i reading this correctly? Hurricane winds out 150+ miles and Tropical Storm force winds 300+ miles from the center?


Sort of but that's not at surface level
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1329 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:09 pm

sma10 wrote:



Wow, what an enormous storm! Am i reading this correctly? Hurricane winds out 150+ miles and Tropical Storm force winds 300+ miles from the center?

That's 850mb's up in the atmosphere so probably not but still would be a large windfield nonetheless.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1330 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:11 pm

TimeZone wrote:Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane. :roll: :lol:


Exactly. That's what would be the saving grace (slightly) if it ended up interacting with it and weakening. Especially if the storm is strong when it makes landfall. A lot of times more powerful storms get ripped to shreds than weaker ones when going through a landmass or mountain range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1331 Postby ronyan » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:11 pm

TimeZone wrote:Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane. :roll: :lol:

It's difficult to tell how long it's over Cuba in the 24hr panels, it could be pretty brief. Can anyone comment on the duration over Cuba with access to the shorter interval panels?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1332 Postby fox13weather » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow: :eek:
Image


Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1333 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:13 pm

fox13weather wrote:


Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.

You think track shifts east?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1334 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:13 pm

Remember the long-range model forecasts for Hermine. It never made landfall in TX or Louisiana as a major hurricane...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1335 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:13 pm

TimeZone wrote:Gotta love the Euro taking this thing directly over the high mountains of Cuba for an extended period of time, and still having it come out as a major Cane. :roll: :lol:

I remember Georges taking Puerto Rico, the DR, Haiti and most of Cuba and emerging as a hurricane. I think these big storms with great upper level support can survive even mountainous land masses better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1336 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That looks so much like 1950's Hurricane King...


Agreed quasi-hurricane King...subtle difference hurricane King had a very distinct smooth curve rather than a straight north track out of the Caribbean however that curve was definitely a Northeast to North to Northwest progression.... I rather think that was the evidence of a rather strong Ridge building in from the East... Rich
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1337 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:14 pm

fox13weather wrote:
Reminder: We had a similar south Florida forecast for "Hermine" - in that case it was a 120 hour forecast that never came close to verifying. In all likelihood, this run will be forgotten in a few days as the track begins to shift.


Yeah. I remember for a good while the computer models were showing Hermine forming and impacting the East Coast and Florida as a powerful storm and it never materialized due to the storm never getting its act together until it was in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1338 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:15 pm

Remember..this hasn't formed yet and much depends where it slows in the Caribbean and begins to turn...10 days out and very dynamic situation...many long nights ahead
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1339 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:16 pm

cajungal wrote:That is the strangest track I ever seen.


That is Hazel one side down the other
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1340 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:16 pm

ivanhater some people don't understand that, 10 days out heck this won't be consistent till 4-5 days out
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