ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1661 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:53 am

0z HWRF shifts southwest with a landfall in eastern Cuba now while missing Haiti to the west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=97L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092800&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1662 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:54 am

The CMC operational is way too fast with this imo, most likely due to the questionable development of system that lifts north from the ITCZ (the GFS washes this vorticity out well east of the Lesser Antilles). Still brings some pretty nasty conditions to the OBX.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1663 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:03 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1664 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:04 am

Socalhurcnegirl227 wrote:Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1665 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:10 am

0Z Euro a bit stronger thru hr 72. Still has a significant SW dip that takes 97L very close to the Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia in about 72 hr.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1666 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:10 am

SeGaBob wrote:Almost time for the Euro...any guesses? I think a tad east this time.


"East of Bermuda" :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1667 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:12 am

AJC3 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:Almost time for the Euro...any guesses? I think a tad east this time.


"East of Bermuda" :ggreen: :ggreen:

Yeah I won't be able to live it down after this. :) I mean it COULD still happen I suppose.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1668 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:15 am

Image
seems like if the euro is trending in the Caribbean Sea it has a better chance of entering the GOM and then possibly making the curve.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1669 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:17 am

SeGaBob wrote:Almost time for the Euro...any guesses? I think a tad east this time.


Would you do me a favor and pick my lottery numbers? ;)

Seriously, I'm leaning a tad east this run looking at hour 96. Let's see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1670 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:21 am

seems like at 72hrs the gfs, euro and hwrf are trending in the same general area of between 16 and 18N
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1671 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:22 am

Looks to be tracking nw at 120hrs.. EURO.. may miss DR/Haiti all together and nail eastern Cuba. Forgot to add... Jamaica first! :eek:
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1672 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:23 am

Image
120 still in open waters, no sign of any hard recurve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1673 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:25 am

I'm thinking a tad further west than prior run. It just occured to me that given the significant deepening that will be starting to occur, along with the fact that it would appear to be a fairly large system, that the storm itself might well be a cause of its own further westward motion by pumping up the high pressure ridge to its north and northeast. I'm pretty sure that there have been numerous prior cases in which this occurred as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1674 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:28 am

chaser1 wrote:I'm thinking a tad further west than prior run. It just occured to me that given the significant deepening that will be starting to occur, along with the fact that it would appear to be a fairly large system, that the storm itself might well be a cause of its own further westward motion by pumping up the high pressure ridge to its north and northeast. I'm pretty sure that there have been numerous prior cases in which this occurred as well.

definitely plausible since the models right now keep this below 20N but having it around 75 or 80W between 72 and 120 hrs from now. even nhc cone isnt yet showing any sign of a slight or hard recurve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1675 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:29 am

Jamaica again at 144
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1676 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:31 am

The door is WIDE OPEN for it to swing NE out to sea @144hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1677 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:32 am

Third consecutive Euro run where this has gone into Kingston from the south. The strongest one yet. Kingston would sustain major impacts if these runs verified.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1678 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:33 am

I think we're about to see SeGaBob's tad east start appearing. Note the lower 500 mb heights to the north at hour 144 vs the last two runs. Also, the stronger storm would favor a tad east imo. The tad east may then grow to more than a tad east.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1679 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:34 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The door is WIDE OPEN for it to swing NE out to sea @144hrs.

yeah the 240 will be the interesting one to see if they are going to continue trending toward GOM or curve out to sea
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1680 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:37 am

After Jamica.. kicks NNE to Cuba.
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