ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[MississippiWx]

GEM had a better initialization spot than the GFS did.

GEM is like the Euro at 500mb.

Where is the Gulf trof?

[HurrMark]

Northeast US is still on the table with this run...let's see how it transpires.

[emeraldislenc]

All of these models are so confusing and it amazes me after one run people say OT. I think we just need to be patient and be prepared for whatever happens.

[centuryv58]

Of course, the UKMET shifts west

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.8N 61.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 12 14.1N 63.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 29.09.2016 24 14.3N 65.9W 1001 49
0000UTC 30.09.2016 36 14.2N 68.6W 993 58
1200UTC 30.09.2016 48 13.4N 70.5W 987 63
0000UTC 01.10.2016 60 13.1N 71.8W 983 65
1200UTC 01.10.2016 72 12.8N 72.9W 986 59
0000UTC 02.10.2016 84 12.8N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.6N 74.5W 987 52
0000UTC 03.10.2016 108 15.2N 75.3W 979 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 120 17.2N 75.3W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 132 19.0N 75.4W 970 63
1200UTC 04.10.2016 144 20.6N 75.3W 982 59

Didn't it shift EAST yesterday?

[WeatherEmperor]

Of course, the UKMET shifts west

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.8N 61.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 12 14.1N 63.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 29.09.2016 24 14.3N 65.9W 1001 49
0000UTC 30.09.2016 36 14.2N 68.6W 993 58
1200UTC 30.09.2016 48 13.4N 70.5W 987 63
0000UTC 01.10.2016 60 13.1N 71.8W 983 65
1200UTC 01.10.2016 72 12.8N 72.9W 986 59
0000UTC 02.10.2016 84 12.8N 73.6W 989 52
1200UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.6N 74.5W 987 52
0000UTC 03.10.2016 108 15.2N 75.3W 979 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 120 17.2N 75.3W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 132 19.0N 75.4W 970 63
1200UTC 04.10.2016 144 20.6N 75.3W 982 59

Dont get me started on the Ukmet Alyono. Dont get mw started.....


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[Alyono]

the east turn of the Canadian away from the US is bull you know what

It has a phantom TC to the east that creates a weakness

[stormlover2013]

ukmet image??

[tolakram]

Sounds like we should ignore this GFS run until we can verify the initialization and compare the two.. then 18z would bring us back to accuracy?

There is no evidence that it matters for the globals. What we want to watch now is the HWRF wich has much higher skill once a storm has formed. Maybe the 12z hwrf run? Anyone know?

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[gatorcane]

the east turn of the Canadian away from the US is bull you know what

It has a phantom TC to the east that creates a weakness

Yeah it seems suspicious. The other thing is that I notice that even on the GFS now, it builds back the Bermuda high around the timeframe the Euro starts to build it back (around 200 hours) which turns the cyclone more WNW north of Eastern Cuba on the last couple of Euro runs.

[p1nheadlarry]

It might be headed for the weakness, but already looking similar to what's it showed yesterday, something like Sandy/1938

[MississippiWx]

Some of you keep mentioning GFS consistency...where? It is bouncing around all over the place along with the CMC, UKMET, etc. Euro seems to be the most consistent. That doesn't mean it's correct, just means it's the most consistent. We shall see.

[ronyan]

It might be headed for the weakness, but already looking similar to what's it showed yesterday, something like Sandy/1938

There is no weakness that I'm seeing on hr 192

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe the east shifts for the GFS are just beginning. A few more runs like this trend from the 12z GFS and the system may only threaten Canada or go OTS. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF does at 1:45EST.

See here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092812&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=200

[chaser1]

Wow, GEM has gone much further West!

Yes trending toward the Euro, heading NW at 102 hours:

See that 1004 low Northeast of the Virgin Islands? I"m assuming that this is Pouch 41 (present tropical wave around 40W, and east of Matthew). I"m a bit confused how this feature is being depicted by all of the models. For several days now, I believe both the GFS and EURO have depicted a cut-off low trailing Matthew to the Northeast, and which supposedly playing a role in degrading the ridge to the north of Matthew. So, what i'm getting at is wondering if this wave represents the feature that may/may not play a role in 1) breaking down the ridge to the north of Matthew, and 2) how this might/might not effect whether a sudden due north turn is likely to occur as depicted earlier by the GFS, and a little later by the EURO and now the GEM model.

[emeraldislenc]

What are the implications for North Carolina?

[Yellow Evan]

Reminder that all global models have a tendency to recurve storms too fast in this area of the world.

[Blown Away]

Big timing difference between Euro/GFS... GFS has Matt off Carolina coast @180 hours and Euro is just leaving Cuba... @500 mile difference

[HurrMark]

the east turn of the Canadian away from the US is bull you know what

It has a phantom TC to the east that creates a weakness

Yeah it seems suspicious. The other thing is that I notice that even on the GFS now, it builds back the Bermuda high around the timeframe the Euro starts to build it back (around 200 hours) which turns the cyclone more WNW north of Eastern Cuba on the last couple of Euro runs.

Yeah, the 500 mb flow would definitely not take this out to sea as it passes the Outer Banks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092812/gfs_z500_vort_watl_32.png

[HurrMark]

198 hrs a slight hook back towards the mid-Atlantic (Delmarva-NJ)

[PTrackerLA]

204 hrs NNE bend with trough incoming from midwest, I think this will be a near miss for the EC