ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Why are folks trying to compare this to the situation we had with Hermine? The 500mb pattern featured stronger and more persistent ridging which is more typical of that time of year. We are now in the final days of September and heading into October which would favor a track the GFS has been showing for days and runs now. It still wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on things if you live along the immediate East Coast of Florida like I do but I sense the threat is decreasing.

What's decreasing? This can go anywere!

The NHC is already shifting their track East some 4-5 days out.

The threat may be decreasing for Florida, but it's just as high as ever for the East Coast / NC and North of there

[floridasun78]

if i in fl or bahamas should look into our hurr supply to be safe i will do here in miami this weekend i wont want go store when get cazy

[robbielyn]

I plotted all the ECMWF ensemble members then removed the ones that didn't take it into the Gulf (25). Note that none of the ensemble members had it tracking north of the Bahamas THEN going across Florida into the Gulf. Most had it not slowing down north of Venezuela and continuing westward then moving through the NW Caribbean. I don't think it'll do that. Checking surface pressures, about half of those taking it into the Gulf were relatively high 995+ mb. Some were in the 940s to 950s.


12Z Sept. 28 ECMWF - All Ensemble Members:
http://i64.tinypic.com/2rorrf8.jpg

12Z Sept. 28 ECMWF - Gulf Ensemble Members (24):
http://i68.tinypic.com/4tuccm.jpg

Florida hits are only from 4 models, the rest go east or west in the Gulf or Atlantic so FL hit unlikely but could be close enough call to feel impacts

[floridasun78]

What's decreasing? This can go anywere!

The NHC is already shifting their track East some 4-5 days out.

The threat may be decreasing for Florida, but it's just as high as ever for the East Coast / NC and North of there

you calling tooo early i hope you right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks everyone I could not recall his name, but yes that is the video. I have no idea of his track record, but given how far away this is we all know things change in a blink of an eye.

[SFLcane]

Please reframe from statements threats are over and this and that. So many things can happen.we won't know what parts if any of the US will be affected at minimum late this weekend

[jlauderdal]

Who from AccuWeather is saying this?

bernie rayno

What's his track record like?

he did well with hermine and has been at AccuWeather a long time..doesnt mean his west forecast will verify

[Blown Away]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

Ok, sorry... Choice of words could have been better... Just making an "At the Moment" observation... Geeez, forgive me...

[GeneratorPower]

I plotted all the ECMWF ensemble members then removed the ones that didn't take it into the Gulf (25). Note that none of the ensemble members had it tracking north of the Bahamas THEN going across Florida into the Gulf. Most had it not slowing down north of Venezuela and continuing westward then moving through the NW Caribbean. I don't think it'll do that. Checking surface pressures, about half of those taking it into the Gulf were relatively high 995+ mb. Some were in the 940s to 950s.


12Z Sept. 28 ECMWF - All Ensemble Members:
http://i64.tinypic.com/2rorrf8.jpg

12Z Sept. 28 ECMWF - Gulf Ensemble Members (24):
http://i68.tinypic.com/4tuccm.jpg

I appreciate this type of in depth investigation. Seriously, thanks for putting up with some of the immaturity inherent to forums. Many of us really appreciate the work you're doing.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Agree I very much look forward to his post.

[ronjon]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yes great work Wxman57, bravo.

[SFLcane]

Yea 57 please elaborate a bit more on what your Implying if possible.

[GeneratorPower]

Wxman57...so what's your point? I didn't follow your logic on the ensemble plots. One other point is that the GFS is about 200 miles north of the ECM in 3-4 days. GFDL, UKMET, and NAM also hug the coast of south america. Seems like if Matt stays further south, ridge is stronger and he goes more west before the turn. I think the models will settle down in a few days when they get the gulf stream IV data sampling in them.

His point is that the Gulf tracks are potentially flawed because of HOW the solutions are arrived at. Because science. He's saying the eastern solutions are more likely to be correct.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Ronjon,

That is fairly close to what this guy on the video was saying so time will tell which one comes to pass.

[tropicwatch]

I have seen some other threads on FB where people are making declarations like "it is not going to make it to the gom" and making this statement after being shown how uncertain the forecast is in the 5-10 day range. Boggles the mind

[jason1912]

00z Spaghetti models shift east.

[Frank2]

The NOAA G-IV won't be flying for another 24 hours, but that would help refine things a bit. Considering Mathew seems to be ahead of schedule in strength, no doubt this might reinforce the right turn forecasts...

[Blown Away]

00z... East shift with TVCN Consensus (Gray)

[ronjon]

The NOAA G-IV won't be flying for another 24 hours, but that would help refine things a bit. Considering Mathew seems to be ahead of schedule in strength, no doubt this might reinforce the right turn forecasts...

Didn't know that Frank but on TWC tonite they said the gulf stream jet was unavailable for Hermine due to corrosion problems with the plane that needed to be fixed. Now we know why the models were having a hard time....