ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[toad strangler]

2nd landfall @ 102 into fattest and highest part of Cuba.

[chaser1]

Going west of 75 degrees before the major Caribbean islands, that's a bit west of the last run, correct?

NHC track has never been west of 75.5W, I believe.

I think you're correct and based on this GFS run, Matthew is all the way over to 77.5W

[USTropics]

Second landfall on Cuba at 102 hours:

[PTrackerLA]

Ridging looks much stronger at 108hrs to the east of Matthew, interesting developments tonight.

[MississippiWx]

Ridging looks much stronger at 108hrs to the east of Matthew, interesting developments tonight.

This.

[p1nheadlarry]

2nd landfall @ 102 into fattest and highest part of Cuba.

That pressure gradient though depicted by the model, might not hurt it too bad. NHC keeps Matthew at Cat-2 strength through the passage, but it doesn't center it over Jamaica either.

[sma10]

This is going to end up over or just west of Andros Island on this run

I wouldn't bet on that

[sponger]

Could be bad for Jamaica if this reaches Cat 2-3 before landfall. I assume the construction is fairly solid but a pretty good hit.

[hurricaneCW]

He better go OTS after doing that type of damage to Jamaica, Cuba, and parts of the Bahamas. We do not want a CONUS landfall too.

[sponger]

Second landfall on Cuba at 102 hours:

Wow! That is substantially farther West!

[fci]

2nd landfall @ 102 into fattest and highest part of Cuba.

That will knock it down a category or two and disrupt the circulation.
Of course it can regenerate on the other side but I've seen monsters hit Cuban or Hispaniola Mountains and get pretty messed up and sometimes not recover

[chaser1]

I'm feeling next stop - Carolina's. Anomaly charts showing north Atlantic trough finally kicking out and it would appear that heights are gonna be rising to the north and east here.

[Blown Away]

Argue slight W of N from 108-114...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Yeah, that first trough washes out over north central Florida.

[floridasun78]

my weather here miami think if move more slower and sw that make it move more toward Haiti and Dominican Republic and central Bahama so all depend how far sw move were turn happen i bit not seen new runs models yet

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to be agonizingly close to the coast from Florida up to the Carolinas possibly.

[TheStormExpert]

Next Stop: Andros Island, Bahamas

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So at this point on the run, are you saying it appears the west moment has stopped and it's going straight north?

[HurricaneFrances04]

Just west of due north.

First trough washes out. Ridge builds back in as it rides the western periphery.

Second trough coming into the picture. Timing of that one can ultimately decide how close he gets to SE Florida.

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[sponger]

I'm feeling next stop - Carolina's. Anomaly charts showing north Atlantic trough finally kicking out and it would appear that heights are gonna be rising to the north and east here.

It is far more possible than this morning. Euro run overnight is going to be interesting.