ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
2nd landfall @ 102 into fattest and highest part of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
fci wrote:p1nheadlarry wrote:Going west of 75 degrees before the major Caribbean islands, that's a bit west of the last run, correct?
NHC track has never been west of 75.5W, I believe.
I think you're correct and based on this GFS run, Matthew is all the way over to 77.5W
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Ridging looks much stronger at 108hrs to the east of Matthew, interesting developments tonight.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:Ridging looks much stronger at 108hrs to the east of Matthew, interesting developments tonight.
This.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
toad strangler wrote:2nd landfall @ 102 into fattest and highest part of Cuba.
That pressure gradient though depicted by the model, might not hurt it too bad. NHC keeps Matthew at Cat-2 strength through the passage, but it doesn't center it over Jamaica either.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:This is going to end up over or just west of Andros Island on this run
I wouldn't bet on that
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Could be bad for Jamaica if this reaches Cat 2-3 before landfall. I assume the construction is fairly solid but a pretty good hit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
He better go OTS after doing that type of damage to Jamaica, Cuba, and parts of the Bahamas. We do not want a CONUS landfall too.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
USTropics wrote:Second landfall on Cuba at 102 hours:
Wow! That is substantially farther West!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
toad strangler wrote:2nd landfall @ 102 into fattest and highest part of Cuba.
That will knock it down a category or two and disrupt the circulation.
Of course it can regenerate on the other side but I've seen monsters hit Cuban or Hispaniola Mountains and get pretty messed up and sometimes not recover
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I'm feeling next stop - Carolina's. Anomaly charts showing north Atlantic trough finally kicking out and it would appear that heights are gonna be rising to the north and east here.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Argue slight W of N from 108-114... 

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
my weather here miami think if move more slower and sw that make it move more toward Haiti and Dominican Republic and central Bahama so all depend how far sw move were turn happen i bit not seen new runs models yet
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This is going to be agonizingly close to the coast from Florida up to the Carolinas possibly.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
So at this point on the run, are you saying it appears the west moment has stopped and it's going straight north?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Just west of due north.
First trough washes out. Ridge builds back in as it rides the western periphery.
Second trough coming into the picture. Timing of that one can ultimately decide how close he gets to SE Florida.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
First trough washes out. Ridge builds back in as it rides the western periphery.
Second trough coming into the picture. Timing of that one can ultimately decide how close he gets to SE Florida.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
chaser1 wrote:I'm feeling next stop - Carolina's. Anomaly charts showing north Atlantic trough finally kicking out and it would appear that heights are gonna be rising to the north and east here.
It is far more possible than this morning. Euro run overnight is going to be interesting.
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