ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I would expect a Special Advisory by 1:30 am, with an intensity of 85 kt and likely a major increase in the forecast intensities.

[sponger]

Wow! Who would have thought this morning!

[fci]

I would expect a Special Advisory by 1:30 am, with an intensity of 85 kt and likely a major increase in the forecast intensities.

Wouldn't they just wait until 2:00?

[Aric Dunn]

just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229

[txwatcher91]

This sort of deepening is reminiscent of my days of tracking back in 2005. Unless shear suddenly hits this a cat 3/4 is possible by late afternoon or evening.

[sponger]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html[url][/url]

[CrazyC83]

I would expect a Special Advisory by 1:30 am, with an intensity of 85 kt and likely a major increase in the forecast intensities.

Wouldn't they just wait until 2:00?

They might do that and override the intermediate advisory. Since we are way ahead of schedule for intensities, a new full package will need to greatly increase the forecast intensities - perhaps to Cat 3 by Friday evening and Cat 4 this weekend.

[Alyono]

clear cat 2 now.

However, the models actually show slight weakening on Saturday, before this bombs out starting Sunday afternoon

[sponger]

clear cat 2 now.

However, the models actually show slight weakening on Saturday, before this bombs out starting Sunday afternoon

Absolutely amazing. Going to be a lot of surprised people in the morning.

[MaineWeatherNut]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 300518
TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum
sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special
advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity
forecast.


$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hammy]

just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229

I have a bet that there wouldn't be a a major hurricane this month, and was confident of winning this morning given Matthew's appearance--I'm not so confident now lol.



Lots of lightning in the NW eye wall, which I don't think is common.

[txwatcher91]

It looks like the anticyclone is slowly starting to drift closer to Matthew, possibly lining back up or a new one forming?

[bg1]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum
sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special
advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity
forecast.

Edit: Never mind, got beat.

[Aric Dunn]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 300518
TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum
sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special
advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity
forecast.


$$
Forecaster Beven

yeah the plane was heading out and they saw something and quickly turned around..

wilma was another time I remember them heading home then did a turn around right as it hit peak intensity.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Lightning in the eyewall is usually either a sign of rapid weakening or Rapid Strengthening which it's pretty clear it's rapidly strengthening since it's now up to a 100mph Cat 2 according to the NHC and Recon.

[sponger]

Not good for Jamaica!

[Aric Dunn]

just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229

I have a bet that there wouldn't be a a major hurricane this month, and was confident of winning this morning given Matthew's appearance--I'm not so confident now lol.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/eTE9JXN.png[/ig]

Lots of lightning in the NW eye wall, which I don't think is common.

the lightning seem more common in low latitudes of intense hurricanes I remember Ivan having hail and lightning reported by recon in this exact same area.

[txwatcher91]

Lightning in a hurricane eyewall can either indicate dry air or RI. In this case it looks like RI is the reason.

[sponger]

I guess we know why the NHC turned that plane around. Bet that was a bumpy run.

[MaineWeatherNut]

just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229

I have a bet that there wouldn't be a a major hurricane this month, and was confident of winning this morning given Matthew's appearance--I'm not so confident now lol.



Lots of lightning in the NW eye wall, which I don't think is common.

At this rate it will be a Cat 3 by 5am if not in the next hour or 2 based on current trends.