ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1601 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:11 am

I would expect a Special Advisory by 1:30 am, with an intensity of 85 kt and likely a major increase in the forecast intensities.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1602 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:12 am

Wow! Who would have thought this morning!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1603 Postby fci » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:13 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I would expect a Special Advisory by 1:30 am, with an intensity of 85 kt and likely a major increase in the forecast intensities.

Wouldn't they just wait until 2:00?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1604 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:13 am

just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1605 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:15 am

This sort of deepening is reminiscent of my days of tracking back in 2005. Unless shear suddenly hits this a cat 3/4 is possible by late afternoon or evening.
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1606 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:15 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1607 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:17 am

fci wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I would expect a Special Advisory by 1:30 am, with an intensity of 85 kt and likely a major increase in the forecast intensities.

Wouldn't they just wait until 2:00?


They might do that and override the intermediate advisory. Since we are way ahead of schedule for intensities, a new full package will need to greatly increase the forecast intensities - perhaps to Cat 3 by Friday evening and Cat 4 this weekend.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1608 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:17 am

clear cat 2 now.

However, the models actually show slight weakening on Saturday, before this bombs out starting Sunday afternoon
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1609 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:18 am

Alyono wrote:clear cat 2 now.

However, the models actually show slight weakening on Saturday, before this bombs out starting Sunday afternoon


Absolutely amazing. Going to be a lot of surprised people in the morning.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1610 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:19 am

000
WTNT64 KNHC 300518
TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum
sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special
advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity
forecast.


$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1611 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229


I have a bet that there wouldn't be a a major hurricane this month, and was confident of winning this morning given Matthew's appearance--I'm not so confident now lol.

Image

Lots of lightning in the NW eye wall, which I don't think is common.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1612 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:20 am

It looks like the anticyclone is slowly starting to drift closer to Matthew, possibly lining back up or a new one forming?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1613 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:20 am

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum
sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special
advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity
forecast.


Edit: Never mind, got beat. :P
Last edited by bg1 on Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1614 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:21 am

MaineWeatherNut wrote:000
WTNT64 KNHC 300518
TCUAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum
sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special
advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity
forecast.


$$
Forecaster Beven


yeah the plane was heading out and they saw something and quickly turned around..

wilma was another time I remember them heading home then did a turn around right as it hit peak intensity.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1615 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:22 am

Lightning in the eyewall is usually either a sign of rapid weakening or Rapid Strengthening which it's pretty clear it's rapidly strengthening since it's now up to a 100mph Cat 2 according to the NHC and Recon.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1616 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:22 am

Not good for Jamaica!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1617 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:23 am

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229


I have a bet that there wouldn't be a a major hurricane this month, and was confident of winning this morning given Matthew's appearance--I'm not so confident now lol.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/eTE9JXN.png[/ig]

Lots of lightning in the NW eye wall, which I don't think is common.

the lightning seem more common in low latitudes of intense hurricanes I remember Ivan having hail and lightning reported by recon in this exact same area.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1618 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:23 am

Lightning in a hurricane eyewall can either indicate dry air or RI. In this case it looks like RI is the reason.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1619 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:25 am

I guess we know why the NHC turned that plane around. Bet that was a bumpy run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#1620 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:25 am

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:just watch the amazing progress of this.. especially the last few hours.. cat 3 by morning is quite possible.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229


I have a bet that there wouldn't be a a major hurricane this month, and was confident of winning this morning given Matthew's appearance--I'm not so confident now lol.

Image

Lots of lightning in the NW eye wall, which I don't think is common.


At this rate it will be a Cat 3 by 5am if not in the next hour or 2 based on current trends.
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