ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Someone needs to turn the windshield wipers off. Preferably locked in the east position.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
OntarioEggplant wrote:I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.
I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Nhc may shift the cone west 25 miles I would think???
They have been on E side of the NHC hugging TVCN Consensus to begin with and gotta think a slight just W of N track over/near Grand Bahama at 5 day...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Cuda wrote:OntarioEggplant wrote:I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.
I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?
I don't think gulf of Mexico is in the cards but I'm No pro
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i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Cuda wrote:OntarioEggplant wrote:I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.
I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?
Pay attention to the NHC and not the models thread. As long as we are past 5 days these runs are more entertainment than fact. It will be another few days before confidence in any track starts to build.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18Z GEFS


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
HWRF makes landfall in E.Cuba at 937mbs. Also slight east of north track through to 96hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18z Hwrf shifts slightly east even further away from SE coast lol. No wonder the consensus barely moves despite some models shifting west...cause there is always another one shifting the other direction
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
GFDL takes this down to 923mbs before Cuba landfall on its 18z run!
It also runs it just west of due north up the Bahamas. Close to Florida but enough offshore to not be able to cause any severe damage.
It also runs it just west of due north up the Bahamas. Close to Florida but enough offshore to not be able to cause any severe damage.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:Cuda wrote:OntarioEggplant wrote:I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.
I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?
Pay attention to the NHC and not the models thread. As long as we are past 5 days these runs are more entertainment than fact. It will be another few days before confidence in any track starts to build.
Wise words and good advice.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
stormreader wrote: Unfortunately many have forgotten that models are not foolproof, they read them as if they were reading facts about the future. Several on this board have tried to warn about the unreliability of any model run out 5 days or more. This forecast was much more difficult than usual. Now people are beginning to see the threat to the Fl peninsula. And I have maintained for days now that the gulf coast side of Fl might even have the highest threat. So yes, a trek into the Gulf is very possible. Expect some continued west shifts.
VERY GOOD POINT... also keep in mind how dependent the models are on IVCs! At this moment in time Matthew is going through an unpredictable ( and definitely not "model predictable" ) phenomenon known as rapid intensification. We do not understand what these storms do during this process, why they do it and we definitely can't predict it! Until this process is complete - you will see eye wall replacement cycle then after that either stabilization in mb/mph OR even more crazy rapid - this may happen once or ten times, but until this process is complete and the storm somewhat stabilizes all bets are off
Last edited by smithtim on Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
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ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18z Gfdl and Hwrf shift slightly east....further away from FL. Gfdl no longer goes WNW towards Fl
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Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
jlauderdal wrote:i return to sofla tomorrow..this trend continues then it will be 50 gal gas tomorrow before panic hits in sofla..side note: we are about get whacked by intensifying tstorms in titisvilleBlown Away wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Im less than 5 miles from.the cape now..will remember the scenery before it was wiped out by Matthew...these west trends are becoming a major concern with vrery intense matthew lurking even if its 100 miles,offshire it requires max preps as it approaches
Go in the garage, remove the cover, dust off spider webs, filter the fuel, and fire up that generator... This is Code Red on your end...![]()
We got smacked real hard by thunderstorms in Port St. Lucie today...had to drive home in it and got hit with nickel sized hail.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:18z Gfdl and Hwrf shift slightly west...further away from FL. Gfdl no longer goes WNW towards Fl
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The GFDL goes NW towards Florida...passes about 60 miles offshore.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
BUD wrote:We all know how these storms do not move on a dime also. Look at how close Floyd got to Florida before it turn.
If this GFS trend continues the evacuation will make Floyd's evacuation look like a Sunday drive. The biggest fear Emergency Managers in Florida have is a major Cat 4/5 approaching from the South. The evacuations will be record breaking. ContraFlow out of South Florida would be implemented I can almost guarantee it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:jlauderdal wrote:i return to sofla tomorrow..this trend continues then it will be 50 gal gas tomorrow before panic hits in sofla..side note: we are about get whacked by intensifying tstorms in titisvilleBlown Away wrote:
Go in the garage, remove the cover, dust off spider webs, filter the fuel, and fire up that generator... This is Code Red on your end...![]()
We got smacked real hard by thunderstorms in Port St. Lucie today...had to drive home in it and got hit with nickel sized hail.
Just had some pretty intense thunderstorms in the lower Keys as well. Not that it's a predictor, just saying s. Fla got some great storms today.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
On 18z GFS it looks like the pressure gradient would cause gusty winds over a large area with 35 mph winds as far away as Dothan, AL next Saturday
Model runs for Cape Canaveral 18z GFS is the dotted Yellow line

Here's the link to the clickable map
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html
Model runs for Cape Canaveral 18z GFS is the dotted Yellow line

Here's the link to the clickable map
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
bamajammer4eva wrote:On 18z GFS it looks like the pressure gradient would cause gusty winds over a large area with 35 mph winds as far away as Dothan, AL next Saturday
Model runs for Cape Canaveral 18z GFS is the dotted Yellow line
Here's the link to the clickable map
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html
As far as Dothan? Wow! We were stationed there at Ft. Rucker several times. Wild.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Hmmm if certain models verify, I wonder if something such as this may eventually unfold with Matthew?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18Z GEFS: 1 GA hit (10/7), 1 SC hit (10/7), ~6 NC hits (10/7-8), and ~8 hits NE US (10/8-10) out of 20! Some of these hit two regions. I counted only 5 that missed the US! This has about as many hits on the US as any GEFS run and the most in a good number of runs though there were no FL hits unlike the 2 12Z GEFS FL hits.
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