ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[OuterBanker]

Someone needs to turn the windshield wipers off. Preferably locked in the east position.

[Cuda]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?

[Blown Away]

Nhc may shift the cone west 25 miles I would think???

They have been on E side of the NHC hugging TVCN Consensus to begin with and gotta think a slight just W of N track over/near Grand Bahama at 5 day...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?

I don't think gulf of Mexico is in the cards but I'm No pro

[tolakram]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?

Pay attention to the NHC and not the models thread. As long as we are past 5 days these runs are more entertainment than fact. It will be another few days before confidence in any track starts to build.

[tolakram]

18Z GEFS

[KWT]

HWRF makes landfall in E.Cuba at 937mbs. Also slight east of north track through to 96hrs.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Hwrf shifts slightly east even further away from SE coast lol. No wonder the consensus barely moves despite some models shifting west...cause there is always another one shifting the other direction


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[KWT]

GFDL takes this down to 923mbs before Cuba landfall on its 18z run!

It also runs it just west of due north up the Bahamas. Close to Florida but enough offshore to not be able to cause any severe damage.

[otowntiger]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?

Pay attention to the NHC and not the models thread. As long as we are past 5 days these runs are more entertainment than fact. It will be another few days before confidence in any track starts to build.

Wise words and good advice.

[smithtim]

Unfortunately many have forgotten that models are not foolproof, they read them as if they were reading facts about the future. Several on this board have tried to warn about the unreliability of any model run out 5 days or more. This forecast was much more difficult than usual. Now people are beginning to see the threat to the Fl peninsula. And I have maintained for days now that the gulf coast side of Fl might even have the highest threat. So yes, a trek into the Gulf is very possible. Expect some continued west shifts.

VERY GOOD POINT... also keep in mind how dependent the models are on IVCs! At this moment in time Matthew is going through an unpredictable ( and definitely not "model predictable" ) phenomenon known as rapid intensification. We do not understand what these storms do during this process, why they do it and we definitely can't predict it! Until this process is complete - you will see eye wall replacement cycle then after that either stabilization in mb/mph OR even more crazy rapid - this may happen once or ten times, but until this process is complete and the storm somewhat stabilizes all bets are off

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfdl and Hwrf shift slightly east....further away from FL. Gfdl no longer goes WNW towards Fl


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[SouthFLTropics]

Im less than 5 miles from.the cape now..will remember the scenery before it was wiped out by Matthew...these west trends are becoming a major concern with vrery intense matthew lurking even if its 100 miles,offshire it requires max preps as it approaches

Go in the garage, remove the cover, dust off spider webs, filter the fuel, and fire up that generator... This is Code Red on your end...

i return to sofla tomorrow..this trend continues then it will be 50 gal gas tomorrow before panic hits in sofla..side note: we are about get whacked by intensifying tstorms in titisville

We got smacked real hard by thunderstorms in Port St. Lucie today...had to drive home in it and got hit with nickel sized hail.

[Bocadude85]

18z Gfdl and Hwrf shift slightly west...further away from FL. Gfdl no longer goes WNW towards Fl


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

The GFDL goes NW towards Florida...passes about 60 miles offshore.

[SouthFLTropics]

We all know how these storms do not move on a dime also. Look at how close Floyd got to Florida before it turn.

If this GFS trend continues the evacuation will make Floyd's evacuation look like a Sunday drive. The biggest fear Emergency Managers in Florida have is a major Cat 4/5 approaching from the South. The evacuations will be record breaking. ContraFlow out of South Florida would be implemented I can almost guarantee it.

[La Sirena]

Go in the garage, remove the cover, dust off spider webs, filter the fuel, and fire up that generator... This is Code Red on your end...

i return to sofla tomorrow..this trend continues then it will be 50 gal gas tomorrow before panic hits in sofla..side note: we are about get whacked by intensifying tstorms in titisville

We got smacked real hard by thunderstorms in Port St. Lucie today...had to drive home in it and got hit with nickel sized hail.

Just had some pretty intense thunderstorms in the lower Keys as well. Not that it's a predictor, just saying s. Fla got some great storms today.

[bamajammer4eva]

On 18z GFS it looks like the pressure gradient would cause gusty winds over a large area with 35 mph winds as far away as Dothan, AL next Saturday

Model runs for Cape Canaveral 18z GFS is the dotted Yellow line



Here's the link to the clickable map
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html

[La Sirena]

On 18z GFS it looks like the pressure gradient would cause gusty winds over a large area with 35 mph winds as far away as Dothan, AL next Saturday

Model runs for Cape Canaveral 18z GFS is the dotted Yellow line



Here's the link to the clickable map
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html

As far as Dothan? Wow! We were stationed there at Ft. Rucker several times. Wild.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hmmm if certain models verify, I wonder if something such as this may eventually unfold with Matthew?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS: 1 GA hit (10/7), 1 SC hit (10/7), ~6 NC hits (10/7-8), and ~8 hits NE US (10/8-10) out of 20! Some of these hit two regions. I counted only 5 that missed the US! This has about as many hits on the US as any GEFS run and the most in a good number of runs though there were no FL hits unlike the 2 12Z GEFS FL hits.